Tropical Cyclone Elsa
Last Updated: Saturday, July 10, 2021 @ 12:30:02 AM

Storm Origin: Atlantic
Wind Speed: 52 mph
Pressure: 999 mb
Movement: 35 mph NE
Latitude: 43.0 N
Longitude: 69.5 W
Tropical Storm Wind Extent: 138 miles
TROPICAL CYCLONE ELSA ADVISORY / FORECAST
ADVISORY from National Hurricane Center:
Expires:No;;601682
WTNT35 KNHC 092042
TCPAT5
 
BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Advisory Number  39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
500 PM AST Fri Jul 09 2021
 
...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED...
...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST 
US THIS EVENING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.0N 69.5W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ENE OF BOSTON MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SE OF PORTLAND MAINE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
All remaining Tropical Storm Warnings for the northeastern U.S.
coast have been discontinued.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
None.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa 
was located near latitude 43.0 North, longitude 69.5 West. The 
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 35 mph (56 
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with an 
increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the 
forecast track, the center of Elsa will continue to move offshore 
the northeastern United States coast through this evening. The 
system is expected to move over Atlantic Canada by late tonight and 
Saturday.
 
Surface observations during the past several hours indicate 
that maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with 
higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple 
of days. Elsa is forecast to dissipate over the north Atlantic by 
Sunday afternoon.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Elsa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5, WMO header WTNT45 KNHC and
on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?key_messages.
 
WIND: Gusty winds will continue across portions of the southern New 
England coast during the next couple of hours.  The post-tropical 
cyclone is also expected to bring gusty winds to portions of 
Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday.
 
RAINFALL: Across coastal Maine...2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated
totals up to 6 inches are possible through this evening, which could
result in considerable flash and urban flooding.  Isolated minor to
moderate river flooding is also expected.
 
For the latest rainfall reports and wind gusts associated with Elsa,
please visit the following link:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc5.html
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane 
Center on this system.  Additional information on this system can be 
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, 
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


DISCUSSION from National Hurricane Center:
Expires:No;;601700
WTNT45 KNHC 092042
TCDAT5
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Discussion Number  39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052021
500 PM AST Fri Jul 09 2021
 
Surface, satellite, and radar data indicate that Elsa’s deep 
convection remains limited to a shield north of its center and that 
a front extends through the center of the cyclone. For those 
reasons, Elsa was designated as a post-tropical cyclone at 1800 UTC. 
Surface observations of sustained winds a little above 40 kt were 
reported across portions of southern Massachusetts and the nearby 
waters as Elsa crossed the state, so the intensity estimate remains 
45 kt. 

Elsa is moving quickly just off the northeast coast of the U.S. with 
an initial motion estimate of 040/27 kt. A faster northeastward 
motion is expected tonight and on Saturday while the system remains 
embedded within a deep mid-latitude trough. Very little change was 
made to the NHC track forecast. All available guidance indicates 
that Elsa will gradually weaken during the next couple of days. The 
GFS, ECMWF, and CMC global models now indicate the cyclone will open 
into a trough within the next 48 h or so, and this is reflected in 
the NHC forecast. 
 
It is estimated that center of Elsa made landfall along the coast of 
Long Island near Southampton around 1430 UTC (10:30 am EDT), and 
again near Watch Hill, Rhode Island near 1615 UTC (12:15 pm EDT). 
Elsa’s classification at the time the center crossed the coast will 
be determined in the post-storm analysis. It should also be noted 
that the landfall position had little bearing on the location or 
timing of the strong winds and heavy rain which were well removed 
from the cyclone’s center.

Since Elsa is now post-tropical and all coastal tropical storm 
warnings have been discontinued, this is the last NHC advisory.  
Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas 
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS 
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. As Elsa moves off the coast of Maine through this evening, heavy 
rainfall could lead to considerable flash and urban flooding.
 
2. Gusty winds will continue across portions of the southern New 
England coast during the next couple of hours. The post-tropical 
cyclone is also expected to bring gusty winds to portions of 
Atlantic Canada tonight and Saturday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/2100Z 43.0N  69.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  10/0600Z 46.2N  64.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  10/1800Z 50.3N  56.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  11/0600Z 54.7N  46.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  11/1800Z...DISSIPATED