Hurricane Teddy
Last Updated: Sunday, September 20, 2020 @ 12:00:02 AM

Storm Origin: Atlantic
Wind Speed: 115 mph
Pressure: 956 mb
Movement: 13 mph NW
Latitude: 27.3 N
Longitude: 61.2 W
Tropical Storm Wind Extent: 230 miles
Hurricane Wind Extent: 58 miles
HURRICANE TEDDY ADVISORY / FORECAST
ADVISORY from National Hurricane Center:
...POWERFUL HURRICANE TEDDY CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD...
...CAUSING RIP CURRENTS THAT WILL AFFECT MOST WESTERN ATLANTIC
COASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 61.2W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Teddy was located
near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 61.2 West. Teddy is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue into Sunday.  A turn toward the north is 
expected by Sunday night followed by a faster northward motion early 
next week.  On the forecast track, Teddy will approach Bermuda on 
Sunday night, and the center will pass just east of the island 
Monday morning.
 
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter Aircraft indicate 
that maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Teddy is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale.  A weakening trend is expected to begin Sunday 
night.  

Teddy is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward 
up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force 
winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km).  Teddy’s wind field 
is likely to become even larger over the next few days.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Teddy can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to affect Bermuda
beginning Sunday night and could linger into Monday night.
 
SURF: Large swells generated by Teddy are affecting the Lesser
Antilles, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east
coast of the United States. Swells from Teddy should reach Atlantic
Canada by early Sunday. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.


DISCUSSION from National Hurricane Center:
Expires:No;;077279
WTNT45 KNHC 200254
TCDAT5
 
Hurricane Teddy Discussion Number  31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL202020
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 19 2020
 
Some convective cells have been developing within Teddy’s large 
outer eye, and it is possible that this convection is forming an 
inner eyewall.  In any event, observations from an Air Force 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum winds have 
decreased slightly, to near 100 kt.  The hurricane is expected to 
remain in a low shear environment until tomorrow evening, and to 
more or less maintain its intensity for 12-24 hours.  Thereafter, 
increasing shear associated with an upper-level trough to the west 
should cause weakening.  Although the shear is predicted by the 
global models to become fairly strong after 48 hours, the system 
has a a very large and intense circulation so only slow weakening 
is expected.  By 72 hours, Teddy should merge with a frontal zone to 
the east of New England and become a strong extratropical cyclone.  
The official intensity forecast is close to the model consensus.
 
The system’s wind field will likely become even larger as the wind 
field of Teddy interacts within a high pressure system behind a cold 
front during the next few days. This could prolong the period of 
strong winds over Bermuda into Monday night.

Teddy continues on a general northwestward track or about 315/11 kt. 
The hurricane should move on the western side of a subtropical high 
pressure area for the next day or so, and then begin to accelerate 
northward ahead of a strong mid-tropospheric trough that develops 
into a cutoff low off the northeast U.S. coast in a couple of days.  
The interaction of Teddy with this low will likely result in a 
slight leftward bend of the track  around days 2-3.  In 4-5 days, 
post-tropical Teddy is likely to turn north-northeastward to 
northeastward in the flow on the east side of a broad 500 mb trough. 
The official track forecast is a blend of the simple and corrected 
dynamical model consensus predictions.

The extent of 12-foot or higher seas associated with Teddy 
continues to increase.  See the Key Message below regarding swells 
caused by the hurricane.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. While the center of Teddy is forecast to move east of Bermuda
late Sunday or Monday, tropical storm conditions are likely on the
island beginning Sunday evening.
 
2. Teddy is expected to transition to a powerful post-tropical
cyclone as it moves near or over portions of Atlantic Canada early
next week, where there is an increasing risk of direct impacts from
wind, rain, and storm surge. Residents there should closely monitor
the progress of Teddy and updates to the forecast.
 
3. Large swells produced by Teddy are expected to affect portions
of the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next few days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/0300Z 27.3N  61.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 28.3N  62.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  21/0000Z 29.6N  63.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  21/1200Z 31.6N  62.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  22/0000Z 35.7N  61.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
 60H  22/1200Z 39.7N  62.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  23/0000Z 42.5N  62.8W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  24/0000Z 49.5N  56.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  25/0000Z 57.0N  42.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP