Rising Atlantic Ocean Temperatures May Boost Hurricane Activity in 2024

The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is poised for potentially heightened activity due to rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Typically running from June 1 to November 30, this period captures 97% of all tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic Ocean. Current conditions show that while early-season cyclones are rare and mild, the ocean’s increasing heat content could fuel more robust storms later in the year.

Sea surface temperatures need to reach between 26-27 °C (79-81 °F) to foster hurricane development. As of early May, temperatures are already close to these critical levels, with some areas of the Atlantic nearing the necessary conditions for cyclone formation. This year’s temperatures have consistently tracked higher than those in 2023, which was already a record-setting year for hurricane activity with 20 named storms.

The warming trend is significant in the Main Development Region, stretching from the east coast of Africa through the southern Caribbean, where the majority of major hurricanes originate. Additionally, the Gulf of Mexico’s warm, shallow waters could amplify storms later in the season. Forecasters are watching for a potential shift from El Niño to La Niña conditions by late summer, which would further reduce obstacles to hurricane development in the Atlantic.

Overall, the combination of warm SSTs and favorable climatic conditions suggests an active 2024 hurricane season, necessitating vigilance from risk management professionals and coastal residents alike.