
The U.S. property and casualty (P&C) insurance market is projected to maintain its positive underwriting momentum into 2025 and 2026, driven by economic growth, improving personal auto results, and a gradual recovery in homeowners’ insurance. A recent Triple-I and Milliman report highlights a net combined ratio improvement to 99.5 in 2024, marking a year-over-year gain of 2.2 points. Personal auto and homeowners lines saw significant improvement, with net written premiums (NWP) expected to outpace commercial lines growth by 9 points.
Despite gains in personal lines, commercial property and liability remain areas of concern. Natural disasters, such as Hurricanes Helene and Milton in 2024, severely impacted commercial property, pushing its net combined ratio to 91.2—a 3.3-point year-over-year increase. Meanwhile, general liability experienced its highest loss ratios in over 15 years, exacerbated by social inflation and nuclear verdicts.
Workers’ compensation offers a brighter outlook, with a forecasted 6% loss cost decrease in 2025, although this is a moderation compared to 2024’s historic 9% drop. As employment levels grow, payroll trends will clarify premium impacts throughout the year.
The report underscores mixed trends in P&C underwriting profitability, with a strong outlook for personal lines and persisting challenges in commercial sectors, particularly due to inflationary pressures, catastrophe losses, and legal system abuse.