Heading Off Surprises

Who had ‘giant cargo ship’ on their bingo card for possible disasters at the start of 2021? What about ‘derecho in Iowa’ in 2020? ‘Global pandemic’ at the outset of 2020?

Few of us foresaw any of those specific disasters. I certainly didn’t.

I didn’t even know what a derecho was until the massive wind storm whacked Iowa, causing $7.5 billion of damages and some $5 billion of claims against insurers — more damage than in most hurricanes.

But some at least entertained such possibilities. And it’s time that we all broadened our thinking by returning to the too-often-neglected discipline of scenario planning.

Bill Gates warned us of the possibilities of a pandemic during a TED Talk in 2015, based on thinking akin to scenario planning — which involves developing stories about possible futures that, while not necessarily probable, are at least plausible and would require drastic action.