Predictive Model Anticipated Tropical Storm Bret’s Early Appearance

Tropical Storm Bret has formed in the central tropical Atlantic -- two months ahead of schedule for that part of the ocean. Fortunately, the technology and expertise were in place to anticipate this second named storm of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.

June tropical storms are not unusual. What’s different about this one is where it’s forming at this point in the season. Typically, a June tropical storm would form at the tail end of a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico or in the western subtropical Atlantic or in the Caribbean. For one to form from an African easterly wave -- in the so-called ‘main development region’ (MDR) of the tropical Atlantic -- is rare.

The culprit is the exceedingly warm tropical Atlantic water. Brian McNoldy, a tropical weather researcher at the University of Miami, tweeted that the Atlantic warmth was ‘beyond extraordinary’ with just a ‘1-in-256,000 chance of observing.’

The National Hurricane Center estimates the storm may become Hurricane Bret by the end of this week.