Mixed Forecasts For 2001 Hurricane Season

Tuesday, December 12th, 2000 — Despite differences between the predictions of two major hurricane-forecasting agencies, they agree that the potential for more hurricanes to hit the South and East coasts are above average for 2001.

For more information, click to The Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale. Scientists at the Colorado State University (CSU) Department of Atmospheric Science and the Benefield Greig Hazard Research Centre (BGHRC) in London are forecasting markedly different potential hurricane patterns for next year. CSU researchers are calling for fewer storms in the Atlantic Ocean than average, while BGHRC‘s team predicts more storms.

However, CSU‘s well-regarded hurricane experts, including William Gray, say the probability of a major hurricane striking the United States at 63 percent. The average over the last 100 years is 52 percent. The probability of a hurricane slamming into the U.S. East Coast (including Florida) is 43 percent.