A major hurricane is among nature’s most devastating phenomena and among insurers’ worst nightmares—and if hurricane expert William Gray is right, the United States can expect significantly more stormy weather over the next few decades.

"I’ve been appointed as a messenger from Chicken Little," Mr. Gray told a packed conference room at the 2001 PCS Catastrophe Conference held here April 30 through May 2. "The sky is going to fall. Maybe it won’t happen this year or next year, but when you look two to three decades down the road, it doesn’t look good."

Mr. Gray is a professor in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University. In 1995, he was honored at the National Hurricane Conference "for pioneering research into long-range hurricane forecasting and for developing a better understanding of how global climatological conditions shape the creation