9/21/2025 5:42:00 PM until 9/22/2025 7:00:00 PM

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help.

A broad tropical disturbance, being monitored as Invest 92W, is slowly moving through western Micronesia and towards Palau and Yap and is located near 9N141E. Today's satellite scatterometer data and visible satellite imagery does not show a well-defined circulation, but an elongated area of cyclonic (counter-clockwise) turning, that is generating locally heavy showers, potentially with some gusty winds. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center rates 92W as a "sub-low" for development, which means significant development into a tropical cyclone is unlikely over the next 24 hours. Mult-model consensus does support a gradual development of 92W later this week, but the overall trend supports development as 92W is west of Palau and Yap, and is moving west-northwest into the Philippine Sea. This slow and disorganized development will lead to widespread variability in conditions across Palau and Yap State, however, the potential for locally heavy showers, gusty winds, and choppy seas exists across the region. Model ensembles show the potential for 3 to 6 inches across the region through Friday, but the location of the heavier rainfall will depend on where the locally heavy showers setup. At this time, landslides are unlikely, due to the high variability in rainfall potential. However, if soils become saturated by heavy rain, this potential will increase with the onset of additional rainfall. Also, northwest to north swells generated by distant Typhoons Ragasa and Neoguri will be increasing surf along west and north facing reefs of Palau and Yap over the next few days, leading to elevated surf along west and north facing reefs. Current wave model projections keep surf below hazardous levels of 9 feet, but this forecast will be closely monitored for any changes. As 92W moves west of Palau and Yap, there is the potential for a monsoon- like pattern to develop as 92W organizes, prolonging elevated seas and surf along the western sides of the islands and impacting areas sensitive to southwest to westerly winds and swells. Residents and mariners should monitor the latest forecasts for the region at weather.gov/gum/PublicForecasts and any information shared by WSO Palau and WSO Yap for their local regions.