9/23/2025 6:18:00 PM until 9/24/2025 6:30:00 PM

Life-threatening rip currents. If caught in a rip current, remain calm. Swim in a direction following the shoreline. If tired, float or tread water until out of the rip current. If unable to escape, face the shore and call or wave for help. Shore break occurs when waves break directly on the beach. It is extremely important to protect your head and neck whenever you are in breaking waves by keeping your hands in front of you at all times.

A broad tropical disturbance, Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC)'s Invest 92W, is currently centered just west of Yap and north- northeast of Palau near 10.1N 135.5E, and is generating widespread heavy showers and gusty winds across the region. 92W is currently the subject of a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (TCFA), meaning it is expected to develop into a significant tropical cyclone (Tropical Depression) within the next 24 hours. Some models indicate the system could strengthen even more rapidly. This afternoon's scatterometry analysis and surface observations for Palau reveal west-northwest surface winds of around 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots, with lighter winds of around 10 to 15 knots near Yap. Himawari visible satellite imagery shows widespread showers along the system's north and western flanks, covering Palau this afternoon. Model guidance indicates 92W will make a slight dip to the west-southwest as it passes just north of Palau tonight through Wednesday, strengthening slightly as it does so. This will lead to an increase in sustained winds and gusts through tomorrow night with winds expected to sustain above 22 knots over Palau coastal waters, generating seas hazardous to small craft, and a Small Craft Advisory has been issued. Gusts are expected to exceed gale force (34 knots) at times. Model ensembles show the potential for 3 to 6 inches of rainfall through Thursday, which could lead to an elevated threat for landslides, especially if soils become saturated from previous heavy rainfall. Additionally, elevated north and west swells strengthened by 92W's passage are expected to generate hazardous surf of 9 ft along north and west reefs of Palau and west reefs of Yap beginning early Wednesday morning. Hazardous surf looks to spread to south facing reefs of Yap due to an elevated southwesterly swell behind 92W. The potential for hazardous surf will linger even after 92W exits to the northwest, as a monsoon pattern looks to set up in its wake, which could maintain elevated southwest swell, and potentially bring hazardous surf to south facing reefs of Palau later this week. Residents and mariners should monitor the latest forecasts for the region at weather.gov/gum/PublicForecasts and any information shared by WSO Palau and WSO Yap for their local regions, as well as JTWC bulletins under WTPN21 PGTW.