Hurricane Irma
Last Updated: Wednesday, September 6, 2017 @ 4:26:34 AM

Storm Origin: Atlantic
Wind Speed: 184 mph
Pressure: 916 mb
Movement: 15 mph WNW
Latitude: 17.4 N
Longitude: 61.1 W
Tropical Storm Wind Extent: 173 miles
Hurricane Wind Extent: 52 miles
HURRICANE IRMA ADVISORY / FORECAST
ADVISORY from National Hurricane Center:
...EYE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE IRMA
PASSING OVER BARBUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 61.8W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF BARBUDA
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...914 MB...26.99 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis
* Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten
* Saint Martin and Saint Barthelemy
* British Virgin Islands
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* Puerto Rico, Vieques, and Culebra
* Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to the northern border with
Haiti
* Guadeloupe

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from the northern border with the Dominican Republic to Le
Mole St. Nicholas
* Turks and Caicos Islands
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Cuba from Matanzas province eastward to Guantanamo province

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Dominican Republic from south of Cabo Engano westward to the
southern border with Haiti

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Haiti from south of Le Mole St. Nicholas to Port-Au-Prince

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.  A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, as
well as Cuba, the central and northwestern Bahamas, and Florida
should monitor the progress of Irma.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located near
latitude 17.7 North, longitude 61.8 West.  Irma is moving toward the
west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue for the next couple of days.  On the forecast track, the
extremely dangerous core of Irma will move over portions of the
northern Leeward Islands tonight and early Wednesday, move near or
over portions of the northern Virgin Islands Wednesday, and pass
near or just north of Puerto Rico late Wednesday and Wednesday
night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 185 mph (295 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Irma is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or two, but Irma is forecast to remain a
powerful category 4 or 5 hurricane during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).  A National Ocean Service automated station on
Barbuda recently reported sustained winds of 119 mph (191 km/h) and
a wind gust of 155 mph (250 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force and NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations is 914 mb (26.99 inches).
The automated station on Barbuda recently reported a pressure of
927.9 mb (27.40 in).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and
large breaking waves will raise water levels ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS by the following amounts within the hurricane warning area
near and to the north of the center of Irma.  Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

Northern Leeward Islands...7 to 11 ft
Turks and Caicos Islands...15 to 20 ft
Southeastern Bahamas...15 to 20 ft
Northern coast of the Dominican Republic...3 to 5 ft
Northern coast of Haiti and the Gulf of Gonave...1 to 3 ft

The combination of a life-threatening storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water is expected to
reach the following HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND if the peak surge occurs at
the time of high tide...

British and U.S. Virgin Islands except St. Croix...7 to 11 ft
Northern coast of Puerto Rico...3 to 5 ft
Southern coast of Puerto Rico and St. Croix...1 to 2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances.  For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in the Leeward Islands tonight, with tropical storm
conditions occurring at this time.  Hurricane conditions are
expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the British
and U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions beginning tonight.  Hurricane conditions are
expected to begin within the hurricane warning area in the Dominican
Republic early Thursday, with tropical storm conditions beginning
Wednesday night.

Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area in Haiti, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the
southeastern Bahamas by early Thursday.

RAINFALL:  Irma is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Thursday:

Northern Leeward Islands...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20 inches
Northeast Puerto Rico and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands
except St. Croix...4 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches
Southwest Puerto Rico, the southern Leeward Islands, and
St. Croix...2 to 4 inches

Irma is expected to produce the following rain accumulations
Wednesday through Saturday:

Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos...8 to 12 inches, isolated 20
inches
Northern Dominican Republic and northern Haiti...4 to 10 inches,
isolated 15 inches
Southwest Haiti...1 to 4 inches

These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

SURF:  Swells generated by Irma will affect the northern Leeward
Islands, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, the southeastern Bahamas,
the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic during the next several days.  These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.


DISCUSSION from National Hurricane Center:
Expires:No;;952177
WTNT41 KNHC 060236
TCDAT1

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number  28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017

The satellite view of Irma remains quite spectacular, with an
extremely well-defined eye and a large, symmetrical CDO.  Reports
from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
central pressure had fallen at about 1 mb per hour since this
morning, although very recently the deepening trend has leveled
off. Based on SFMR-observed winds from the aircraft, the current
intensity remains at 160 kt.  The Meteo-France radar imagery
suggests a concentric eyewall structure and observations from the
aircraft hinted at a secondary wind maximum.  If an eyewall
replacement becomes more definitive, this would likely halt
additional strengthening, and could even lead to some weakening.
The official intensity forecast is near or above the model
consensus. Given the favorable atmospheric and oceanic environment,
Irma is likely to remain a Category 4 or 5 hurricane for the next
few days.

Latest center fixes from satellite imagery and the aircraft
indicate that Irma is now moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt.
A strong ridge extending southwestward from the central Atlantic is
expected to steer Irma west-northwestward during the next couple of
days.  A large mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States is
forecast to lift northeastward, allowing the ridge to build westward
and keep Irma on a westward to west-northwestward heading through
Friday.  In 4 to 5 days, a small trough diving southward over
the east-central U.S. is expected to weaken the western portion of
the ridge, causing Irma to turn poleward.  Some of the dynamical
models have shifted northward a bit from the previous cycle, with
the normally reliable GFS looking like a northeast outlier.  The
official track forecast leans toward the ECMWF solution.  Users are
reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at the
longer ranges, since the average NHC track errors are about 175 and
225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will
bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to
portions of the northern Leeward Islands, including the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico, on Wednesday.  Preparations should be
rushed to completion.

2. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, with hurricane watches for Haiti, the
southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos.  Irma is likely to
bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to these areas from
Wednesday night through Friday.

3. Irma could directly affect the remainder of the Bahamas and Cuba
as an extremely dangerous major hurricane later this week. Residents
in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to
advice given by officials.

4. The chance of direct impacts from Irma beginning later this week
and this weekend from wind, storm surge, and rainfall continues to
increase in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula.
However, it is too soon to specify the timing and magnitude of these
impacts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0300Z 17.4N  61.1W  160 KT 185 MPH
 12H  06/1200Z 18.1N  63.1W  155 KT 180 MPH
 24H  07/0000Z 19.1N  65.9W  150 KT 175 MPH
 36H  07/1200Z 20.1N  68.5W  145 KT 165 MPH
 48H  08/0000Z 21.0N  71.2W  140 KT 160 MPH
 72H  09/0000Z 22.0N  76.2W  135 KT 155 MPH
 96H  10/0000Z 23.2N  79.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
120H  11/0000Z 25.0N  81.5W  120 KT 140 MPH


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