Although some say COVID-19 is a black swan event, it really is not. Pandemics have occurred in the recent as well as the remote past.Risk Management
A clearly articulated description of pandemic risk can be found in the World Economic Forums, The Global Risks Report 2019. Ã¢âぎÅ“The spread of infectious diseaseÃ¢âぎ was among the top 10 risks listed, based on impact.
There are estimates of the cost of a pandemic in one of the special chapters in the report, though these may look small compared with what COVID-19 might actually cost.
In the The Global Risk Report for 2020, Ã¢âぎÅ“infectious diseasesÃ¢âぎ is again among the top 10 risks.
That report describes the readiness of countries to deal with epidemic or pandemic and cites a Nuclear Threat Initiative study that concluded that Ã¢âぎÅ“no country is fully prepared to handle an epidemic or pandemic.Ã¢âぎ