No Outliers: Expect Global Annual Nat Cat Losses Of $100B+

The insurance and reinsurance industry should anticipate a long-run annual average bill of approximately $106 billion from global catastrophe events, according to analysis by catastrophe risk modeller, AIR Worldwide.

Verisk’s AIR Worldwide has released its 2021 Global Modeled Catastrophe Losses report, which shows that recent years of natural catastrophe losses are not outliers.

‘While there has been justifiable concern about extreme event losses over the last few years, outside of 2017, actual global insured losses have been below the modeled long-term average,’ said Bill Churney, President of AIR Worldwide.

Historically, AIR’s reports have provided aggregate losses at both the 100 and 250-year return period points from the full distribution of potential losses.

And while the firm continues to see the importance of exploring loss metrics in the tail of distribution, it’s also keen to address concerns about the size of recent losses and the ability of current climate models to adequately reflect extreme loss potential.