Breaking the Plastic Wave 2025: Plastic Pollution Could Triple Without Systemic Reform

The Breaking the Plastic Wave 2025 report, published by Pew in collaboration with multiple research institutions, issues a stark global forecast: plastic pollution could nearly triple by 2040 if current trends continue. The updated analysis builds on Pew’s 2020 landmark study and shows how unmanaged growth in plastic production, combined with insufficient collection and recycling systems, threatens to overwhelm ecosystems, infrastructure, and regulatory frameworks worldwide.

For insurance claims adjusters, this is more than an environmental concern—it signals intensifying exposures. As plastic waste increasingly blocks drainage systems, contaminates water sources, and accumulates at landfills and coastlines, insurers should expect higher volumes of property, environmental, and health-related claims. Flood risks, fire hazards at waste facilities, liability linked to microplastics, and compliance risks under expanding plastic regulation regimes are all forecasted to rise without intervention.

Pew’s model emphasizes that the crisis is avoidable: a full ‘System Change’ scenario—featuring reduced plastic use, material substitution, expanded reuse, and improved waste management—could cut plastic pollution by over 80% relative to baseline projections. However, the cost of inaction is high. A five-year delay in systemwide response would result in an additional 80 million metric tons of cumulative pollution by 2040.

Adjusters should take note of the report’s emphasis on emerging regulatory frameworks, including Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR), bans on specific plastic types, and plastic taxation—all of which introduce new forms of operational and financial risk for insured entities. The Pew report’s detailed sectoral breakdowns and regionally specific pathways also help identify where future claims trends are most likely to evolve—especially in fast-growing, middle-income countries with limited waste infrastructure.