Climate Crisis and Flood Vulnerability: Federal Analysis Fails to Reflect Actual Risk
Thursday, June 29th, 2023 Catastrophe PropertyA recent analysis reveals that the federal assessment of extreme rainfall is significantly underestimating the likelihood of flood events, raising concerns about infrastructure development, flood insurance costs, and public safety. The report, conducted by First Street Foundation, a non-profit organization focused on weather risk research, highlights the growing obsolescence of the concept of a 1-in-100-year flood in the face of intensified precipitation events.
The problem lies with the federal rainfall analysis managed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which has not kept pace with the climate crisis and the resulting increase in precipitation intensity.
The federal rainfall analysis known as Atlas 14 was developed by NOAA, which has acknowledged that the data is outdated for a rapidly changing climate. A new analysis by NOAA is expected in 2027.
The implications of major rainfall events and outdated federal data extend to the construction of new infrastructure and the affordability and availability of flood insurance for homeowners. Critical infrastructure faces safety and survivability challenges, particularly in flood-prone regions. Moreover, the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) flood insurance program significantly underrepresents the number of individuals residing in FEMA’s Special Flood Hazard Areas. As a result, millions of Americans may be unaware of their current flood risk, posing a threat to their properties and well-being.
