Climate-Driven Power Outages Projected to Surge for Vulnerable Coastal Communities

A groundbreaking study highlights how climate change will sharply increase the risk and cost of power outages caused by tropical cyclones along the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coasts. Using advanced machine learning and climate modeling, the researchers project that by the end of the century, outage-related costs could nearly double from $6.2 billion to over $11 billion annually under a three degrees Celsius warming scenario. Crucially, this isn’t just a technological or environmental issue—it’s one that will reshape the risk landscape for insurers and claims professionals alike.

Insurance claims adjusters should take note of the study’s detailed mapping of outage projections at the census-tract level. It identifies significant increases in outage frequency and severity particularly in northern Florida, Georgia, and the mid-Atlantic. These regions also coincide with sociodemographic vulnerabilities: Hispanic, non-White, and low-income populations are disproportionately at risk. This intersection of climate, infrastructure, and equity will have major implications for post-storm claims, especially around business interruption, ALE (additional living expenses), and health-related losses.

Adjusters can also draw insights from the study’s methodology, which relies on real-world climate models, outage prediction via random forest algorithms, and the U.S. Department of Energy’s Interruption Cost Estimate (ICE) Calculator. This predictive lens enables more precise reserving, triage, and planning ahead of large-scale weather events. The findings reinforce the importance of integrating climate data into everyday claims workflows and preparedness strategies.