El Nino 2023: Forecasting Heat Waves, Droughts, and Floods
Friday, June 9th, 2023 Catastrophe PropertyThe National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced on Thursday morning that El Nino, the powerful ocean and atmosphere cycle in the tropical Pacific, has officially resurfaced after a hiatus of approximately four years. El Nino plays a significant role in shaping global weather patterns and has the potential to amplify extreme weather events worldwide.
The occurrence of El Nino or La Nina is determined by sea surface temperatures near the equator in the Pacific Ocean. These temperatures affect the positioning of the jet stream, which subsequently influences the weather experienced on land. Scientists predict that El Nino will likely elevate global average surface temperatures, resulting in 2023 or 2024 potentially surpassing the record-breaking warmth observed during the El Nino year of 2016.
This occurrence offers a glimpse into the potential climate of the future as global warming persists. The record-breaking ocean temperatures observed in various basins preceding this El Nino raise concerns for marine ecosystems, as the event is expected to drive further ocean warming.
In terms of regional impacts, El Nino typically brings cold and wet winters to the Southern United States and generally results in warm and dry winters for the Pacific Northwest, Ohio Valley, northern Rockies, and parts of the Midwest. Hawaii often witnesses below-average rainfall during the fall, winter, and spring seasons of an El Nino. While El Nino can strengthen the hurricane season in the central and eastern Pacific, it tends to contribute to the formation of weaker hurricanes in the Atlantic basin.
