Hurricane Forecasters Shrinking ‘Cone Of Uncertainty’

The National Hurricane Center is making changes to its “cone of uncertainty” based on an improving forecast record. The cone is designed to show people where the center of a storm is likely to head. The size of the tropical cyclone track forecast error cone for the Atlantic basin will be smaller this year, but a little larger at the longer forecast times in the East Pacific, the NHC said on Monday. The Hurricane Center calculates the cone by using the previous five-year record of forecast errors and it is drawn to reflect at least two-thirds of the inaccuracies.