Likely Shift To El Nino Expected To Make 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season ‘Slightly’ Below Average
Friday, April 14th, 2023 CatastropheThe intensity of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be ‘slightly below average,’ due to a likely shift of Pacific temperature conditions of the past three years from La Nina to El Nino, according to Dr. Phil Klotzbach, Triple-I nonresident scholar and research scientist with Colorado State University (CSU).
CSU predicts there will be 13 named storms this season, with six hurricanes, two of them ‘major’ (Category 3, 4, or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). An average system has 14 named storms, with seven hurricanes, three of them major, Klotzbach said.
El Nino refers to warmer waters in the eastern and central tropical Pacific, which contribute to high winds in the upper atmosphere over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic. These winds tend to ‘tear apart hurricanes as they try to develop,’ Klotzbach said.
At the same time, temperatures in the eastern and central tropical and subtropical Atlantic are anomalously high. When these water temperatures are warmer than normal, they tend to enhance hurricane development, which is why CSU predicts only a ‘slightly’ below-normal season, despite the influence of El Nino.
