NOAA Shifts 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Forecast to Above-Normal Activity
Friday, August 11th, 2023 CatastropheScientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center have issued an update for the ongoing 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, increasing their prediction from a near-normal level of activity to an above-normal level. This shift is driven by unprecedented oceanic and atmospheric conditions, including record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures, which are defying the typically inhibiting effects of the ongoing El Niño event.
NOAA’s forecasters have raised the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60%, a significant increase from the initial outlook issued in May, which indicated a 30% chance. In contrast, the probability of a near-normal season has now decreased to 25%, down from the earlier estimate of 40%. This updated assessment attributes a mere 15% chance to a below-normal season.
El Nino conditions are currently prevailing, and the Climate Prediction Center estimates a greater than 95% likelihood that those will persist through the Northern Hemisphere’s winter. Traditionally, El Nino’s atmospheric conditions tend to suppress tropical activity during the Atlantic hurricane season. However, the anticipated effects that usually limit tropical cyclone formation have been slow to manifest this year, and experts predict that these factors might not be significantly influential throughout the remainder of the hurricane season.
It is essential to note that NOAA’s hurricane outlooks offer forecasts for overall season activity rather than specific landfalls.
