U.S. Coastal Residents Will Benefit From NOAA’s Improved Storm Surge Model
Monday, May 8th, 2023 Catastrophe PropertyThe National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has announced that it has upgraded its Probabilistic Storm Surge model to version 3.0, which will significantly enhance the ability to predict the storm surge of some of the world’s worst tropical cyclones.
The new model enables forecasters to track simultaneous hurricanes and improve depictions of varying terrain along the U.S. coastline, improving the accuracy of the prediction of dangerous storm surges.
The original P-Surge model was first developed after Hurricane Isabel caused a deadly storm surge of 6–8 feet along the coasts of North Carolina and Virginia in 2003.
The upgraded model combines historical and hypothetical data with current storm data from the National Hurricane Center to produce probabilistic products. Forecasters are then able to determine the likelihood of the severity of the upcoming event and relay the risks to the public.
NOAA’s storm surge watch and warning system uses watches and warnings to alert coastal residents of the threat of water rise. The alerts take into account the forecast track, intensity, size of the tropical cyclone, land elevation, and astronomical tide levels.
Storm surges are often the greatest threat to life and property, accounting for almost half of the deaths of a landfalling tropical cyclone.
More than 22 million people along the Gulf and East coasts are vulnerable to storm surges, with areas along shallow coastlines being the most at risk. A shallow shelf’s slope allows water to rise higher and further than where the continental shelf drops off quickly.
NOAA’s upgraded model will provide better insight into the potential for storm surges in different areas, giving forecasters a valuable tool to help keep residents informed and safe during severe tropical storms.
