...EDOUARD EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE REACHING THE NORTHWEST
GULF COAST LATER TODAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 92.5W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None. 
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island to the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line
 
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* High Island to the Cameron Louisiana
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Bolivar to the  Vermilion/Iberia Parish Line
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Edouard was 
located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 
28.8 North, longitude 92.5 West. Edouard is moving toward the 
west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwestward to 
northwestward motion is forecast during the next day or two.  On the 
forecast track, the center of Edouard is predicted to reach the 
northwestern Gulf Coast within the warning area later today and move 
inland over southeast Texas tonight.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Strengthening is forecast and Edouard could approach 
hurricane strength before it reaches the northwest Gulf coast later 
today. Rapid weakening is expected after the center moves inland. 
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.
 
The minimum central pressure estimated by reconnaissance dropsonde 
data is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Edouard can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO
header WTNT45 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast
within the warning area later this morning.  Hurricane conditions
are possible within the Hurricane Watch area later today.
 
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
High Island, TX to Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA...3-5 ft
Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, LA to Morgan City, LA...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.
 
For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation,
please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?peakSurge.
 
RAINFALL: Edouard is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches with maximum totals up to 9 inches for parts of the Upper
Texas Coast inland through east-central Texas, with potential for 2
to 3 inches in far southwest Louisiana. This rainfall is likely to
produce flash flooding, especially in low-lying and urban areas.
River flooding may also be possible.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with 
Edouard, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ero.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052026
0300 UTC TUE SEP 01 2026
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N  91.8W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
4 M SEAS.... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N  91.8W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.4N  91.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 29.2N  93.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 30.1N  94.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 31.1N  95.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N  91.8W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 01/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

Expires:No;;695993
WTNT45 KNHC 010253
TCDAT5
 
Tropical Storm Edouard Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052026
1000 PM CDT Mon Aug 31 2026
 
Satellite and radar data showed an increase in banding near the 
center of the small tropical cyclone during the late afternoon and 
early evening hours.  Subjective and objective satellite intensity 
estimates increased to around 35-40 kt, and the initial wind speed 
was therefore increased to 35 kt on the 0000 UTC intermediate 
advisory.  Since that time, there has been a pause in the 
organization of the system, but curved bands are noted over the 
northern and western portions of the circulation. An Air Force 
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has been sampling the system 
this evening reported earlier that the pressure has fallen to 
around 1004 mb, which is quite a bit lower than from this 
afternoon’s mission, though the last fix was up a millibar or two.  
The flight-level winds do not appear to have responded to the 
pressure drop yet, so the initial intensity remains 35 kt for this 
advisory.
 
Edouard will be moving over very warm waters of the northwestern
Gulf within a low shear and a sufficiently moist environment
tonight and Tuesday morning.  As a result, nearly all of the
dynamical models indicate that the system will strengthen on its
approach to the coast, with most showing much of the strengthening
occuring in the final hours before landfall.  Given that the system
is small, a period of quick organization and strengthening seems
likely Tuesday morning.  The NHC forecast calls for intensification
during the next 12 hours and additional strengthening could result
in Edouard nearing hurricane strength when it approaches the
coast on Tuesday. Therefore, a Hurricane Watch and Storm Surge
Warning has been issued for a portion of the northwest Gulf coast
with this advisory. The NHC intensity forecast is near the upper-end
of the guidance envelope. Note that since the peak intensity is
expected to occur at landfall (between the 12 and 24 hour forecast
points), it is not possible to explicitly reflect Edouard’s peak
intensity in the forecast points below.
 
Edouard is moving west-northwestward or 300/6 kt.  A low- to
mid-level ridge over the southeastern United States is expected to
steer the cyclone toward the west-northwest to northwest during the
next couple of days. This motion should bring the center onshore
along the northwestern Gulf Coast on Tuesday and inland over eastern
Texas Tuesday night.  The track guidance is in good agreement on
this scenario and the new NHC track forecast is essentially an
update of the previous track.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Edouard is expected to strengthen and it could approach
hurricane strength before it reaches the northwest Gulf Coast on
Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are expected along the northwest
Gulf Coast with hurricane conditions possible from High Island to
Cameron.
 
2. A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from High Island, Texas to
the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line, Louisiana where peak values of
3 to 5 feet above ground level are possible along the immediate
coast within the warning area.
 
3. Heavy rain will impact parts of the Upper Texas coast through 
east-central Texas into far Southwest Louisiana Tuesday and 
Wednesday as Tropical Storm Edouard tracks inland. Flash flooding is 
likely across this region, especially in urban areas. River flooding 
may also be possible.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  01/0300Z 28.6N  91.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  01/1200Z 29.2N  93.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  02/0000Z 30.1N  94.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 36H  02/1200Z 31.1N  95.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  03/0000Z...DISSIPATED