...ERIN BECOMES POST-TROPICAL, THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...
...SWIMMING AT MANY U.S. EAST COAST BEACHES IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
DANGEROUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.0N 59.7W
ABOUT 605 MI...970 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SSE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 33 MPH...54 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin
was located near latitude 40.0 North, longitude 59.7 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 33
mph (54 km/h).  This general motion with an increase in forward 
speed is expected later today, followed by a turn back to the 
northeast on Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center of Erin 
will pass south of Atlantic Canada today and tonight, and then race 
across the north Atlantic waters.
 
Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Erin is likely to remain a large and powerful 
hurricane-force low pressure system through the weekend.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 435
miles (705 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Erin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC.
 
WIND:  Gale-force wind gusts are possible along portions of the
coast of Nova Scotia today and the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland
on Saturday.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Erin will affect the Bahamas, Bermuda,
the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the
next few days. These rough ocean conditions are expected to
cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.  Please consult
products from your local weather forecast office for more
information.
 
A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found
at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents
 
STORM SURGE:  Some coastal flooding is expected at times of high 
tide along portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts
through tonight, making some roads impassable.  See updates from
your local National Weather Service office for details.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  Additional information on this system can be 
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052025
2100 UTC FRI AUG 22 2025
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N  59.7W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR  65 DEGREES AT  29 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 90NE 110SE 110SW 100NW.
50 KT.......180NE 190SE 170SW 150NW.
34 KT.......380NE 330SE 270SW 280NW.
4 M SEAS....330NE 480SE 780SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N  59.7W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.4N  61.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 41.5N  54.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 100SE 100SW  90NW.
50 KT...180NE 190SE 170SW 150NW.
34 KT...360NE 350SE 300SW 280NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 44.0N  45.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT...  0NE 120SE 120SW  90NW.
50 KT...140NE 190SE 170SW 120NW.
34 KT...400NE 360SE 320SW 260NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 48.0N  35.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT...  0NE 120SE 150SW  60NW.
50 KT...120NE 190SE 180SW 100NW.
34 KT...370NE 420SE 400SW 260NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 52.0N  27.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT...  0NE 120SE 150SW  50NW.
50 KT...120NE 220SE 200SW 120NW.
34 KT...350NE 400SE 380SW 300NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 55.0N  23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  60SE  60SW   0NW.
50 KT...100NE 200SE 180SW 120NW.
34 KT...350NE 440SE 450SW 320NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 58.0N  21.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  90SE  90SW   0NW.
34 KT...330NE 420SE 550SW 300NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 59.0N  21.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 300SE 480SW 210NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 57.0N  17.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 200SE 330SW 120NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.0N  59.7W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE 
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

Expires:No;;705744
WTNT45 KNHC 222032
TCDAT5
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Erin Discussion Number  46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
500 PM AST Fri Aug 22 2025

Erin has now become a powerful extratropical low.  While there is 
still deep convection near the center, scatterometer data clearly 
shows that Erin has become frontal.  Thus, extratropical transition 
has been completed, and this is the last NHC advisory.  The initial 
intensity remains 80 kt based on the multiple earlier scatterometer 
winds near 70 kt, with very large gale- and storm-force wind-radii 
noted.  

While the general track and intensity forecast is about the same as 
before, one specific marine hazard to highlight is the consistent 
development of a strong sting jet in the southern semicircle of Erin 
by Sunday, as well as a very large hurricane-force wind field.  
Model guidance now suggest that a maximum of 80-90 kt is possible, 
and the NHC intensity forecast is raised to 85 kt then.  No other 
noteworthy changes were made to the previous forecast.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at 
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Erin will continue to produce life-threatening surf and rip
currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the east coast of
the U.S., Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada during the next few days.
Beachgoers in those areas should follow advice from lifeguards,
local authorities, and beach warning flags.
 
2. Some coastal flooding is expected at times of high tide along 
portions of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic and New England coasts through 
tonight, making some roads impassable.  Large waves along the coast 
could also cause significant beach erosion and overwash.
 
3. Gale-force wind gusts are possible along the coast of Nova Scotia
today and the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland on Saturday.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  22/2100Z 40.0N  59.7W   80 KT  90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  23/0600Z 41.5N  54.5W   80 KT  90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  23/1800Z 44.0N  45.5W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  24/0600Z 48.0N  35.5W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  24/1800Z 52.0N  27.0W   85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  25/0600Z 55.0N  23.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  25/1800Z 58.0N  21.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  26/1800Z 59.0N  21.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  27/1800Z 57.0N  17.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP