...FAUSTO WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT ENTERS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 139.8W
ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of
Fausto.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Fausto was
located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 139.8 West. Fausto is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next several days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Fausto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.
 
SURF: Surf generated by Fausto is expected to begin building across
east-facing shores of the eastern end of Hawaii on Sunday, spreading
westward Sunday night into Monday, and continue building through
Tuesday as Fausto approaches and moves into the area. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

HURRICANE FAUSTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062026
0900 UTC SUN JUL 26 2026
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 139.8W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  25SE  20SW  45NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......170NE 110SE 110SW 170NW.
4 M SEAS....300NE 240SE 240SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 139.8W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 139.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.0N 141.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  15SE  10SW  35NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE  90SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 20.4N 144.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE  80SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.0N 146.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  70SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.5N 149.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 22.0N 151.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.6N 154.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE  30SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 23.9N 159.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   5SE   0SW  40NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 25.5N 163.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N 139.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

Expires:No;;626833
WTPZ41 KNHC 260848
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Fausto Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP062026
1100 PM HST Sat Jul 25 2026
 
Satellite imagery indicates that Fausto’s convective structure has 
begun to gradually deteriorate during the past several hours. 
Mid-level dry air has become increasingly entrained into the 
circulation, resulting in the erosion of deep convection over the 
eastern semicircle. Recent microwave imagery also suggests erosion 
of portions of the eyewall. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity 
estimate from TAFB is T4.5/77 kt, while objective intensity 
estimates from UW-CIMSS generally range from 75 to 85 kt. Given the 
recent degradation in the satellite presentation, the initial 
intensity is lowered to 80 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter 
aircraft and a NOAA aircraft are scheduled to investigate Fausto on 
Sunday. The reconnaissance data should help improve confidence in 
subsequent track and intensity forecasts.
 
The initial motion is estimated to be 280/11 kt as Fausto moves into 
the central Pacific basin. This general motion is expected to 
continue during the next several days as a strong subtropical ridge 
remains positioned north of the cyclone. The latest track guidance 
remains in good agreement through 72 h, with some increase in 
cross-track spread thereafter as Fausto passes north of the Hawaiian 
Islands. The NHC forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous 
advisory, and closely follows the multi-model consensus (HCCA).
 
Fausto has likely begun a gradual weakening trend as it moves into a 
drier mid-level environment over marginal sea surface temperatures. 
Additionally, southwesterly vertical wind shear is forecast to 
steadily increase beginning in around 24 h. Simulated satellite 
imagery depicts a similar evolution, with the convective structure 
gradually eroding late Sunday into early next week. By the time 
Fausto moves north of the Hawaiian Islands, it is forecast to be a 
weakening tropical storm, with the deepest convection becoming 
increasingly displaced from the low-level center and the strongest 
winds confined to the northern side of the circulation. The NHC 
intensity forecast is little changed from the previous advisory and 
remains near the upper end of the guidance envelope.
 
Based on the predicted sheared nature of the storm, the risk of 
sustained tropical-force-winds on land should remain low as long as 
the forecast track stays north of the islands. Interests in Hawaii 
should continue to monitor the latest forecast updates.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Fausto is expected to weaken as it approaches the vicinity of the 
Hawaiian Islands early next week. Although confidence is increasing 
that the strongest winds and heaviest rainfall will remain north of 
the islands, interests across Hawaii should continue to monitor the 
progress of Fausto.
 
2. Confidence is high that swells generated by Fausto will reach the 
Hawaiian Islands well in advance of the cyclone, producing 
increasing surf and dangerous rip currents. Surf is expected to 
steadily build westward across the state over the next few days as 
Fausto approaches and passes to the north.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  26/0900Z 19.7N 139.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  26/1800Z 20.0N 141.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  27/0600Z 20.4N 144.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 36H  27/1800Z 21.0N 146.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  28/0600Z 21.5N 149.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  28/1800Z 22.0N 151.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  29/0600Z 22.6N 154.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  30/0600Z 23.9N 159.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  31/0600Z 25.5N 163.5W   30 KT  35 MPH