...TROPICAL STORM FAY STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 33.0W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Fay was
located near latitude 34.1 North, longitude 33.0 West. Fay is moving
toward the northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion is expected
to continues through the rest of the day. Afterwards a turn to the 
southwest is expected on Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) 
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the 
next day or so, and Fay could approach hurricane intensity tonight. 
A gradual weakening trend is expected to begin on Monday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

TROPICAL STORM FAY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL062026
1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N  33.0W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  40 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N  33.0W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N  33.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 34.3N  32.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 10NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 40NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 33.9N  32.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 32.9N  32.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 31.7N  34.2W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 30.6N  35.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 29.8N  37.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 28.8N  41.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N  33.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

Expires:No;;768744
WTNT41 KNHC 201456
TCDAT1
 
Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number   5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026
300 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026
 
Deep convection continues to build near the center of Fay over the
last several hours. The current objective intensity estimates from
UW-CIMSS are in the range of 39-52 kt, and the most recent TAFB
Dvorak fix was a T3.0/45 kt. In addition, there was an ASCAT pass
that showed a peak wind vector of 43 kt. Given the uncertainties 
due to undersampling, the initial intensity for the storm has been 
raised to 50 kt. The cyclone continues to remain very compact with 
its tropical-storm-force winds estimated to extend out to about 40 
n mi.

Both a relatively moist environment and positive interactions 
with an approaching mid- to upper-level trough should allow Fay to 
further intensify for the next 12 to 24 hours. After the trough 
lifts on Monday, the increase in wind shear and dry air should lead 
to a gradual weakening of the cyclone. The current NHC forecast 
calls for Fay to become a post-tropical remnant low by Tuesday and 
then dissipate by the end of the week. The official intensity 
forecast is a little higher than the model guidance in the short 
term to account for the storm’s structure being more improved and 
the expected baroclinic support from the trough.  This small system 
could approach hurricane strength later today or tonight. 

Fay is slowly moving off to the northeast, with the initial motion 
estimated around 010/5 kt. This general motion should continue for 
the rest of the day. However, a low- to mid-level ridge is expected 
to build to the north of the storm by Monday, which will cause Fay 
to turn southwestward and gradually accelerate in that direction 
over the course of the forecast period. The current NHC track 
forecast is similiar to the previous track forecast with a few 
minor adjustments and remains in good agreement with HCCA and 
GDMI. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/1500Z 34.1N  33.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 34.3N  32.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 33.9N  32.4W   50 KT  60 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 32.9N  32.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 31.7N  34.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  23/0000Z 30.6N  35.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  23/1200Z 29.8N  37.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  24/1200Z 28.8N  41.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  25/1200Z...DISSIPATED