Tropical Cyclone Lorena / Storm Watch / Claims Pages

...LORENA DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA... ...MOST IMPORTANTLY, THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR AND SONORA THROUGH TODAY... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.5N 115.0W ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM W OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Baja California Sur and Sonora, Mexico, should continue to monitor the risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding associated with Lorena. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena was located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 115.0 West. The post-tropical cyclone is currently nearly stationary. A slow north-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected through early Saturday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest over the weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and the remnant low is expected to dissipate by late Sunday or Sunday night. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lorena can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC. RAINFALL: Bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact Baja California Sur and Sonora Mexico through today. Additional rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with maximum storm total amounts of 12 inches, are possible across portions of Baja California Sur, far southeast Baja California, southwestern Sonora, and northern Sinaloa through tonight. This will bring the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of higher terrain. Elsewhere across Mexico, 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals up to 6 inches, are expected across the remainder of Sonora. These amounts will lead to isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding. Across the southwestern United States, 1 to 2 inches of rain, with isolated totals up to 4 inches, are expected across portions of Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday, bringing the potential for isolated to scattered flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Lorena, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Lorena will continue affecting portions of the west coast of Baja California Sur through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last advisory on Lorena by the National Hurricane Center. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php Rainfall forecasts for the United States can be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php For rainfall forecasts in northwestern Mexico, please see products from the Meteorological Service of Mexico.

Expires:No;;569063 WTPZ22 KNHC 271444 TCMEP2 HURRICANE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072024 1500 UTC TUE AUG 27 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 140.7W AT 27/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 120SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 140.7W AT 27/1500Z AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 140.1W FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.6N 142.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.9N 144.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 19.4N 146.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.9N 149.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 20.3N 151.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 20.8N 153.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 22.2N 158.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 140.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON GILMA CAN BE FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER BEGINNING AT 2100 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP2...WMO HEADER WTPA22 PHFO.

Expires:No;;914852 WTPZ42 KNHC 050900 TCDEP2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorena Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP122025 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 05 2025 Lorena has not produced organized convection near the center for the last 18 h, and since the center is located over sea surface temperatures between 24-25C there is little chance that convection will re-develop. While the latest scatterometer overpasses missed the center, satellite intensity estimates are quickly decreasing and are now in the 25-35 kt range. Based on this, Lorena has degenerated to a remnant low with winds near 30 kt. The system should continue to weaken over the cold water, with dissipation forecast by 72 h. Lorena has moved little since the last advisory. Track model guidance indicates that the remnant low should drift northward for the next 12 h or so, followed by a slow motion toward the northwest and then west-northwest. The new forecast track is similar to, but a little south of, the previous track. While Lorena is now a remnant low, the heavy rainfall threat continues. Abundant moisture continues to stream northeastward away from Lorena, and a surface trough seen in scatterometer data over the Gulf of California between Loreto and Guymas is triggering a large area of convection at this time. Significant rainfall and flash flooding has already occurred over portions of Baja California Sur, and the risk of life-threatening flash flooding will continue across portions of Baja California Sur and Sonora through today, and southern Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday. This is the last advisory on Lorena by the National Hurricane Center. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php Rainfall forecasts for the United States can be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml and outlooks of flash flood risks can be found at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excessive_rainfall_outlook_ero.php For rainfall forecasts in northwestern Mexico, please see products from the Meteorological Service of Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Lorena will continue to impact Baja California Sur and Sonora Mexico through tonight, which will result in areas of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides across northwest Mexico. 2. Moisture from Lorena will contribute to heavy rainfall concerns across Arizona and New Mexico through Saturday. Isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding are possible across Arizona into Saturday. 3. Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions will affect portions of the western coast of Baja California Sur through today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 24.5N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 05/1800Z 24.7N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/0600Z 25.1N 115.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 06/1800Z 25.4N 115.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0600Z 25.8N 116.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/1800Z 26.1N 117.7W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED