...MARIE STILL JUST SHY OF HURRICANE INTENSITY AS IT MOVES
NORTHWESTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF THE MEXICAN COAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 112.5W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Marie was 
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 112.5 West. Marie is 
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This motion 
should continue through tonight followed by a turn more 
west-northwestward for the next several days.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast through Friday, and 
Marie is likely to become a hurricane tonight. Gradual weakening is 
anticipated to begin by this weekend.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Marie will affect portions of the coast of
southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next few
days and will likely spread northward to southern California over
the weekend.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United
States can be found at:
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?ripCurrents
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132026
2100 UTC WED SEP 02 2026
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 112.5W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE  60SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT.......160NE 160SE  30SW  90NW.
4 M SEAS....270NE 210SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 112.5W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 112.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.7N 113.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 35NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  25SW  45NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE  60SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  25SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT... 75NE  65SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE  70SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.2N 116.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  35SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  75SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE  90SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.8N 117.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  35SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 85NE  75SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 130NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.5N 119.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  35SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  65NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.1N 120.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 75NE  65SE  45SW  65NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 23.5N 122.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 55NE  40SE   0SW  45NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 100SW 120NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 23.7N 125.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  80SW 100NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 112.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

Expires:No;;795292
WTPZ43 KNHC 022042
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Marie Discussion Number   7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP132026
200 PM MST Wed Sep 02 2026
 
Since the previous advisory, Marie has experienced bit of a hiccup
in its convective structure, with warming clouds tops near the
center aside from a recent burst wrapping around west of the
center. The most recent microwave pass from this morning showed a
banding type eye attempting to form, though it was struggling to
close off on its northwest side. In addition, there was an RCM-3
SAR pass earlier today with an interesting structure, showing a
small core, but with stronger winds occuring along the outer bands
of Marie’s circulation. This structure hints that it might take
some time for the inner-core to fully consolidate. For now, the
18 UTC TAFB Dvorak satellite estimate was T3.5/55 kt, while the
objective intensity estimates range from 53 to 67 kt. Thus, the
initial intensity will remain 60 kt this advisory, keeping Marie
just shy of hurricane intensity.
 
Marie appears to be a little right of the prior forecast track, but
is still moving off to the northwest, with the estimated motion at
310/10 kt. Over the next several days, a narrow mid-level ridge
located to the north and northeast is expected to steer the tropical
cyclone generally off to the west-northwest, gradually slowing its
forward motion in the process as the ridge slowly weakens. Beyond 60
h, there continues to be significant cross-track spread that
develops among the model guidance, related to how much an amplified
mid-latitude trough, off the western United States coast, erodes
this ridge. For this cycle, some of the more reliable track aids,
ECMWF, Google DeepMind (GDMI), HCCA, actually show Marie turning
back westward in the day 4-5 time frame, as the ridge holds to the
north of the cyclone while the mid-latitude trough moves inland over
the western United States. However, there remain a minority of
solutions that show a more rightward track if the trough fully
erodes the ridge steering Marie. The NHC track forecast this cycle
is slightly right of the prior one for the first 48-60 h, following
the latest trends in the GDMI and HCCA aids, but now bends a little
more westward in days 4-5, also following trends in these aids.
 
Intensity-wise, the earlier SAR imagery in addition to a partial
ASCAT-C pass show Marie has a broad wind field with a
larger-than-normal radius of maximum wind. This could prevent more
rapid development over the next couple of days despite the favorable
environmental conditions. Thereafter, while sea-surface
temperatures (SSTs), diagnosed by SHIPS guidance between 27-28 C,
appear favorable, some of these waters were recently churned up by
the last tropical cyclone along this track (Iselle last week), and
the HAFS-A/B hurricane-regional models suggest the large wind field
of Marie could upwell some cooler waters underneath. Thus the latest
NHC intensity forecast shows a somewhat lower intensity than
earlier, peaking at 80 kt in the day 2-3 time frame. This intensity
forecast favors the hurricane-regional models over the latest SHIPS
guidance given the potential for ocean upwelling. Marie should be
crossing the 26 C SST isotherm after 72 h, and weakening is expected
to begin in earnest beyond this time period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/2100Z 18.0N 112.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 18.7N 113.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 19.5N 115.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 20.2N 116.5W   80 KT  90 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 20.8N 117.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  05/0600Z 21.5N 119.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 22.1N 120.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 23.5N 122.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 23.7N 125.5W   50 KT  60 MPH