...ODALYS IS GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 125.5W
ABOUT 1310 MI...2110 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Odalys was
located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 125.5 West.  Odalys is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a turn 
to the northwest is expected later today.  A turn toward the north 
and northeast with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on 
Tuesday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to  near 45 mph (75 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Continued gradual strengthening is expected 
during the next 48 hours, and Odalys is forecast to become a 
hurricane by Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162026
1500 UTC SUN SEP 20 2026
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 125.5W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
4 M SEAS.... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 125.5W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 125.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 12.1N 126.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 13.3N 128.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 14.1N 129.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT... 90NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.5N 129.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 14.8N 128.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 14.9N 127.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 15.5N 126.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 16.8N 124.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 125.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

Expires:No;;768768
WTPZ41 KNHC 201456
TCDEP1
 
Tropical Storm Odalys Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162026
800 AM PDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Deep convection has been increasing in association with Odalys 
this morning, with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C near the 
estimate center location.  Some banding features are beginning to 
develop over the southern semicircle of the system.  Upper-level 
outflow is limited to the north of the storm, however.  The current 
intensity is set at 40 kt for this advisory, which is a blend of 
subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.

The center is not easy to locate, but my best estimate of initial 
motion is west-northwestward, or around 285/8 kt.  Odalys should 
turn northwestward as it moves on the southwestern side of a 
narrow and weakening mid-level ridge to its northeast.  After 
about 48 hours, the system should slow and turn northeastward  
and eastward in response to the ridge weakening  and a 
mid-tropospheric trough moving over southern California and Baja 
California.  Later in the forecast period, the cyclone should 
move generally northeastward along the northwest side of a 
mid-level ridge.  However there is significant uncertainty in 
the 3-5 day track of Odalys due its potential interaction with a 
developing tropical cyclone to its east.  The official track 
forecast is fairly close to the lastest corrected model consensus, 
HCCA, prediction.

Odalys should be in an environment conducive for strengthening 
during the next few days, with very warm waters, low to moderate 
vertical wind shear, and high low- to mid-level humidity.  
Therefore gradual strengthening is expected during the next couple 
of days,  and the official forecast is close to the latest 
Decay-SHIPS model guidance.  Later in the forecast period, the 
system may encounter a little drier air and its intensity become 
hindered by its interaction with the developing tropical cyclone 
closer to the coast of Mexico. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  20/1500Z 11.1N 125.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  21/0000Z 12.1N 126.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  21/1200Z 13.3N 128.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  22/0000Z 14.1N 129.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  22/1200Z 14.5N 129.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 60H  23/0000Z 14.8N 128.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  23/1200Z 14.9N 127.7W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  24/1200Z 15.5N 126.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  25/1200Z 16.8N 124.5W   65 KT  75 MPH