Tropical Cyclone Paulette
Last Updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2020 @ 6:30:00 PM

Storm Origin: Atlantic
Wind Speed: 86 mph
Pressure: 973 mb
Movement: 35 mph ENE
Latitude: 43.3 N
Longitude: 45.2 W
Tropical Storm Wind Extent: 276 miles
Hurricane Wind Extent: 81 miles
TROPICAL CYCLONE PAULETTE ADVISORY / FORECAST
ADVISORY from National Hurricane Center:
...PAULETTE BECOMES A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.3N 45.2W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Paulette was located near latitude 43.3 North, longitude 45.2 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near
35 mph (56 km/h), and this general motion is expected through 
Thursday.  Afterward, the cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn 
toward the southeast and south late Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Further weakening is forecast during the next 
couple of days.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255
miles (405 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF:  Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect 
Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and portions of the east
coast of the United States through tonight. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system.  Additional information on this system can 
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php


DISCUSSION from National Hurricane Center:
Expires:No;;901817
WTNT42 KNHC 161440
TCDAT2
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Discussion Number  39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020
 
Conventional GOES-16 visible and enhanced BD-curve satellite imagery 
show that Paulette has merged with the large baroclinic zone 
extending over the north-central Atlantic.  Deep convection just to 
the north of the surface center that was noted on earlier microwave 
images has dissipated.  Therefore, the system is now classified as 
extratropical cyclone and this is the last NHC advisory. The initial 
intensity is conservatively lowered to 75 kt based on 1221 UTC 
scatterometer data, earlier Dvorak intensity estimates and a SATCON 
analysis of 64 kt. 
 
The NHC intensity forecast is based on a blend of the global models 
and is just above the HCCA multi-model consensus. Although not 
specified in the NHC forecast, there is some chance that Paulette 
could reacquire tropical or subtropical characteristics later this 
week or over the weekend when it turns southward back over warmer 
oceanic temperatures. This possibility will be monitored for 
inclusion in future Tropical Weather Outlooks, if necessary. 
 
The post-tropical cyclone’s initial motion is east-northeastward, 
or 060/30 kt. The low is expected to continue quickly in this 
general motion through Thursday morning within the deep-layer 
mid-latitude flow.  By mid-period, Post-Tropical Paulette is 
expected to slow down and turn southeastward to southward as it 
moves on the west side of mid- to upper-level low to the east of the 
cyclone.  The new track forecast is based primarily on the HCCA and 
TVCA consensus aids.
 
Paulette is producing a large area of high seas.  The maximum seas
estimated by the Ocean Prediction Center near the core of the
hurricane are up to 50 feet.  Swells from Post-Tropical Cyclone 
Paulette have spread far away from the center and continue to affect 
Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, and portions of the U.S. east coast.
 
This is the last NHC advisory on Paulette. Additional information
on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header
FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/1500Z 43.3N  45.2W   75 KT  85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 12H  17/0000Z 45.0N  39.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  17/1200Z 46.2N  35.3W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  18/0000Z 45.1N  33.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  18/1200Z 42.5N  32.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  19/0000Z 39.5N  32.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  19/1200Z 37.0N  32.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  20/1200Z 35.0N  32.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  21/1200Z 34.0N  32.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP