Expires:No;;227568
WTPZ31 KNHC 062039
TCPEP1
 
BULLETIN
Hurricane Priscilla Advisory Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162025
200 PM MST Mon Oct 06 2025
 
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH TODAY OVER PARTS OF
COASTAL WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 108.0W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
ABOUT 340 MI...550 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
from Punta San Telmo to southeast of Manzanillo
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Manzanillo to Punta Mita, Mexico
* Baja California Sur from Cabo San Lucas to Santa Fe
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.
 
Interests elsewhere in the Baja California peninsula should monitor
the progress of Priscilla.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Priscilla was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 108.0 West. Priscilla is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn 
toward the northwest at a slightly faster forward speed is expected 
over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the 
system is expected to move offshore of and parallel to the coast of 
west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur through the middle part 
of this week.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Strengthening is expected over the next day or two, and 
Priscilla is forecast to become a category 2 hurricane before 
weakening begins by midweek.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Priscilla can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area
along the west-central coast of Mexico through today, and are
possible in Baja California Sur Tuesday night into Wednesday.
 
RAINFALL: Outer bands from Priscilla will continue to bring heavy
rain to portions of west-central Mexico today. Across coastal
portions of Michoacán and Colima, additional rainfall amounts of 1
to 2 inches are expected.  From Tuesday into Wednesday, 1 to 2
inches with local storm total amounts to 4 inches are expected in
southern portions of Baja California Sur due to the outer bands of
Priscilla. This rainfall could bring a risk of flash flooding,
especially in areas of higher terrain.  Moisture from Priscilla
should bring heavy rainfall potential over the Southwest U.S. late
this week into this weekend.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding
associated with Priscilla, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF: Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as portions
of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula.  These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 500 PM MST.
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

Expires:No;;053908
WTPZ21 KNHC 072031
TCMEP1
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062024
2100 UTC WED AUG 07 2024
 
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 120.2W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 120.2W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 119.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 120.2W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM

Expires:No;;227631
WTPZ41 KNHC 062041
TCDEP1
 
Hurricane Priscilla Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162025
200 PM MST Mon Oct 06 2025
 
Priscilla has a very large area of banded convection that spirals 
into a central area that has shown signs of some clearing from 
time-to-time.  Satellite intensity estimates haven’t changed much 
from the previous advisory.  A recent ASCAT pass from 06/1604 UTC 
shows that the system still has a large radius of maximum winds 
(RMW).  The strongest vectors of 50-55 kt were mainly located in the 
eastern semicircle.  It’s possible that slightly stronger winds 
could be located just outside the edge of the scatterometer pass.  
The initial intensity is maintained at 75 kt, but this could be a 
bit generous.
 
Priscilla is moving a bit faster toward the north-northwest, or 340
degrees at 6 kt.  A more northwestward track with some 
slight additional acceleration is expected by this evening as 
mid-level ridging becomes better established over Mexico.  The model 
guidance has come into slightly better agreement through 72 hours.  
Beyond 72 hours, a turn toward the north is expected as a trough 
just off the coast of California picks up the cyclone.  The latest 
NHC forecast has been adjusted slightly to the right of the 
previous forecast, and is a bit faster at day 4 and 5.  The new NHC 
track lies slightly to the left of the HFIP Corrected Consensus 
(HCCA) and Google DeepMind Ensemble Mean.

The inner core and RMW of Priscilla has not contracted yet, and the 
hurricane has also not strengthened over the past 12 hours.  
Moderate vertical wind shear and some sneaky dry slots noted on 
water vapor imagery could be preventing Priscilla from developing a 
tight inner core.  Until that happens, only slow strengthening 
is anticipated.  The NHC intensity forecast is similar to, but 
slightly lower than the previous forecast, and lies near the middle 
of the guidance envelope.  Priscilla is forecast reach colder 
waters, and the system is forecast to weaken below hurricane 
strength shortly after that time.  Priscilla is likely to lose its 
deep convection and become a remnant low just beyond 96 h. The 
weakening circulation could reach the northern Baja California 
peninsula just before it dissipates.  Enhanced moisture is likely to 
make its way toward portions of the southwestern United States.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1.  Tropical storm conditions are possible along portions of the
coast of west-central Mexico through today, and in Baja California 
Sur Tuesday night into Wednesday, within the watch areas. Interests
elsewhere in the Baja California peninsula should monitor the 
progress of Priscilla.
 
2.  Heavy rainfall associated with Priscilla will impact portions of 
southern Baja California Sur, which could result in flash flooding, 
particularly in areas of higher terrain.
 
3.  Swells generated by Priscilla are affecting portions of the
coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico as well as the coast 
of the southern Baja California peninsula.  These swells are likely 
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  06/2100Z 18.3N 108.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  07/0600Z 19.1N 108.9W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  07/1800Z 20.0N 110.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  08/0600Z 20.9N 111.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  08/1800Z 22.0N 112.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  09/0600Z 23.1N 114.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  09/1800Z 24.3N 114.8W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  10/1800Z 27.0N 115.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  11/1800Z 30.0N 114.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW