...RACHEL CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD PARALLEL TO THE COAST
OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 103.7W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Coast of southwestern Mexico from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of southwestern Mexico north of Playa Perula to Cabo
Corrientes
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Rachel was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 103.7 West. Rachel is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A gradual 
turn toward the northwest with a slower forward speed is expected 
during the next few days.  On the forecast track, the center of 
Rachel is predicted to move parallel to, but stay offshore of, the 
coast of southwestern Mexico.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, 
and Rachel is forecast to become a hurricane during the next day or 
so.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.
  
The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane Hunter 
Aircraft observations is 992 mb (29.30 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Rachel can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC.
 
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
later today.  Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
area by tonight or Wednesday.
 
RAINFALL: Rachel is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6
inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across coastal
portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán and Colima.
This rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides, especially in
areas of steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall
Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf
 
SURF: Swells generated by Rachel will affect portions of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days and
spread northward through midweek. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

TROPICAL STORM RACHEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP182026
0300 UTC TUE SEP 29 2026
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 102.9W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 140SE 140SW  60NW.
4 M SEAS....180NE 150SE  90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 102.9W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 102.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 15.2N 104.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 130SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.5N 105.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 130SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 17.9N 107.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 140SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 18.9N 107.8W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 19.5N 108.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.9N 109.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 20.4N 110.1W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 20.9N 111.4W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  90SW 110NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 102.9W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPEP3...AT 29/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

Expires:No;;223326
WTPZ43 KNHC 290250
TCDEP3
 
Tropical Storm Rachel Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182026
900 PM CST Mon Sep 28 2026
 
The satellite-observed structure of Rachel has improved this 
evening. While the storm is still clearly feeling the effects of 
northerly shear, proxy-visible and infrared satellite images show 
the low-level center is tucked underneath the northern side of the 
cold dense overcast. TAFB also noted an improvement in the satellite 
structure of Rachel with their latest T3.0 Dvorak classification, 
and the various UW-CIMSS objective estimates generally range from 
44-54 kt. Based on a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity 
is set at 50 kt.

Rachel is moving west-northwestward (300/9 kt) along the southwest 
side of a mid-level ridge over northern Mexico. A deep-layer trough 
over the southwestern United States is expected to move eastward 
during the next couple of days, which should erode the ridge and 
cause Rachel to turn northwestward at a slower forward speed within 
weaker steering currents through midweek. By late week, the trough 
is forecast to lift out and the ridge should become reestablished to 
the north, with Rachel expected to resume a west-northwestward 
motion. Overall, the track model guidance trended slightly faster 
this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been adjusted to fall between 
the latest simple (TVCN) and corrected (HCCA) consensus aids.
 
In general, the models agree that Rachel should intensify over very 
warm SSTs (29-30 deg C) with abundant mid-level moisture and a 
divergent upper-level environment. Moderate vertical wind shear 
appears to be the only limiting factor, though it is forecast to 
gradually decrease through midweek. Since the tropical storm is 
sheared and currently lacks an inner core, only gradual 
strengthening is forecast tonight. Thereafter, there is fairly large 
spread in the intensity guidance, with some models including Google 
DeepMind, COAMPS-TC, and HCCA showing Rachel reaching major 
hurricane status. The updated NHC intensity forecast is not as 
aggressive as these models but has been raised from the previous 
prediction, slightly higher than the simple consensus (IVCN) but 
still well below the latest HCCA and GDMI aids. The NHC forecast 
levels off in the 60-120 h time frame based on mixed signals in the 
guidance, perhaps a result of Rachel encountering some cooler waters 
left behind in the wake of Hurricane Polo.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Although the core of Rachel is forecast to remain offshore of 
Mexico, tropical-storm-force winds are expected along a portion of 
the coast of southwestern Mexico in the Tropical Storm Warning area 
on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch 
area Tuesday night or on Wednesday.
 
2. Outer bands from Rachel will bring locally heavy rainfall to 
portions of coastal southwest Mexico through Thursday. This rainfall 
may produce areas of flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of 
steep terrain.
 
3. Large waves could produce life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during
the next several days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0300Z 14.5N 102.9W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  29/1200Z 15.2N 104.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  30/0000Z 16.5N 105.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  30/1200Z 17.9N 107.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  01/0000Z 18.9N 107.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  01/1200Z 19.5N 108.5W   85 KT 100 MPH
 72H  02/0000Z 19.9N 109.1W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  03/0000Z 20.4N 110.1W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  04/0000Z 20.9N 111.4W   80 KT  90 MPH