...SIMON BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...RAPID INTENSIFICATION FORECAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.6N 104.6W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has upgraded the Hurricane Watch from
Playa Perula to Punta Mita, Mexico, to a Hurricane Warning.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of Punta San Telmo to Lazaro Cardenas
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Additional watches or warnings could be required for portions of the
coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico tonight or Friday.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Simon was located
near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 104.6 West. Simon is moving
toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h).  A turn to the
northwest is expected by early Friday, followed by a northward
motion by early Saturday.  On the forecast track, the core of Simon
is expected to approach the coast of southwestern and west-central
Mexico on Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Rapid intensification is forecast, and Simon is
expected to become a very dangerous category 4 hurricane before it
reaches the coast of Mexico.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Simon can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC.
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area
Saturday afternoon or evening, with tropical storm conditions
expected Saturday morning. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the Tropical Storm Watch area beginning Friday.
 
RAINFALL: Simon is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 15
inches over portions of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum
totals of 25 inches possible across portions of Michoacan, Colima
and Jalisco through Sunday.  This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Simon,
please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic
available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf.
 
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is possible along the
immediate coast near and to the east of where the center makes
landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather
office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

HURRICANE SIMON FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202026
0300 UTC FRI OCT 09 2026
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 104.6W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
4 M SEAS.... 90NE  75SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 104.6W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 104.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.1N 105.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.9N 105.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 17.8N 105.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.0N 105.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 70NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.4N 105.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.6N 105.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE  60SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 23.3N 105.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 104.6W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 09/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

Expires:No;;770611
WTPZ45 KNHC 090321 CCA
TCDEP5
 
Hurricane Simon Discussion Number   7...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202026
900 PM CST Thu Oct 08 2026

Corrected malformed non-unicode character in third paragraph.

Simon has become a hurricane this evening.  The satellite
presentation consists of a developing small, intense, central dense
overcast with -82C cold cloud tops, and a primary curved band
wrapping into the center from the northwest part of the cyclone. The
TAFB Dvorak satellite intensity estimate is 65 kt, as well as the
initial intensity for this advisory.
 
Simon’s wind radii were adjusted based on a 1920 UTC OSCAT-3
overpass.
 
All conducive ocean heat content, dynamic, and thermodynamic
environmental contributions indicate that Simon should quickly
intensify during the next 24-36 hrs.  Subsequently, the SHIPS RI
index shows a near 70 percent that the cyclone intensity will
increase by 30 kt in 24 hrs.  This seems quite reasonable given that
Simon’s inner core is rather small, indicative of a recent AMSR3 MI
pass.  Accordingly, the official intensity forecast will continue to
predict an RI event on Friday, with Simon becoming a category 4
hurricane while heading toward the coast of west-central Mexico.
The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, is close
to the HFIP-HCCA, and now shows a peak intensity of 120 kt on
Saturday morning.
 
Simon’s initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or
295/5 kt.  A turn to the northwest is expected by early Friday. A
northward motion is forecast by early Saturday while high pressure
over central Mexico weakens and shifts eastward, in response to an
amplifying mid-tropospheric trough approaching Baja California. The
HiRes global models that have been to the left of the forecast track
outliers have trended eastward during the past 24 hours, and now
align more with the skilled HCCA and GDMI aids.  Therefore,
confidence in the forecast track is increasing.  The official
forecast is slightly to the left of the previous advisory and a
little slower to conform to the HCCA model, which includes the
Google DeepMind TC ensemble mean.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Simon is expected to approach the west-central coast of Mexico
as a major hurricane on Saturday.
 
2. Life-threatening wind and storm surge impacts are expected along
a portion of the west-central coast of Mexico, and a Hurricane
Warning is in effect from Punta San Telmo to Punta Mita.
Preparations to protect life and property should be completed by
late Friday.
 
3. Heavy rainfall associated with Simon will impact portions of
southwestern Mexico through this weekend. This rainfall may produce
life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of
steep terrain.
 
4. Swells will affect portions of the southwestern and west-central
coast of Mexico through the weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/0300Z 15.6N 104.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 16.1N 105.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 16.9N 105.2W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 17.8N 105.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 19.0N 105.3W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  11/1200Z 20.4N 105.3W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND
 72H  12/0000Z 21.6N 105.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 96H  13/0000Z 23.3N 105.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED