...VANCE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 102.6W
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 495 MI...800 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
 
Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the
progress of Vance.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Vance was located
near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 102.6 West. Vance is moving
toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through the weekend.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher 
gusts. Some additional strengthening is possible through tonight. 
However, gradual weakening is forecast to begin by Saturday.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Vance are expected to begin affecting
portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico this
weekend and continue into next week. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

HURRICANE VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP222026
0300 UTC SAT OCT 24 2026
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 102.6W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  965 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 180SE  80SW 110NW.
4 M SEAS....240NE 210SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 102.6W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 102.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 12.8N 102.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  20SW  35NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE 190SE  80SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 13.8N 103.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  20SW  35NW.
50 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE  80SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 14.8N 103.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 15.8N 103.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.3N 104.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.8N 104.2W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE  80SW 130NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 17.6N 104.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  70SW 100NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 18.4N 104.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW  80NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 102.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

Expires:No;;084321
WTPZ42 KNHC 240338
TCDEP2
 
Hurricane Vance Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP222026
900 PM CST Fri Oct 23 2026
 
Correction: Updated to emphasize that Vance briefly reached major 
hurricane intensity earlier this evening before weakening to 
Category 2 strength.
 
Satellite imagery indicates that Vance became better organized 
earlier this evening, with cloud-top temperatures cooling and deep 
convection expanding around a warming eye. However, the eye has 
become less distinct during the past hour or two, with some warming 
of the cloud tops in the eyewall, possibly due to moderate southerly 
vertical wind shear. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from 
TAFB was T5.5/102 kt, although recent objective intensity estimates 
have trended downward toward 95 kt. Vance briefly reached major 
hurricane intensity earlier this evening before the recent 
deterioration in its satellite presentation. Given the recent 
degradation in satellite presentation and the latest objective 
estimates, the initial intensity is set at 95 kt.
 
Vance is moving north-northwestward, or 345/6 kt. This general 
motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days as a 
broad mid- to upper-level trough evolves over the western portion of 
the United States, weakening the subtropical ridge over Mexico. 
Although the track guidance remains in relatively good agreement 
through 24 to 36 h, forecast confidence decreases thereafter as the 
trough shifts eastward and Vance enters a region of weaker steering 
currents. Significant cross-track spread persists among the guidance 
solutions, partly due to differences in how well Vance maintains its 
vertical structure as increasing shear affects the cyclone. A 
weaker, more vertically tilted system could be steered farther 
westward, while a stronger, vertically coupled hurricane would be 
more likely to continue northward toward the southwestern or 
west-central coast of Mexico. Given these persistent differences, 
the NHC track forecast remains largely unchanged from the previous, 
lying close to the HCCA and GDMI aids.
 
Vance may have reached its peak intensity earlier this evening after
rapidly intensifying from 60 to 100 kt over the preceding 24 h.
Although some additional strengthening is possible in the short
term, recent satellite trends suggest that the hurricane may be
beginning to feel the effects of a less favorable environment.
Cooler sea surface temperatures associated with the wakes of recent
tropical cyclones have reduced the ocean heat content along portions
of Vance’s forecast track. These cooler waters, combined with
increasing vertical wind shear, should contribute to a weakening
trend during the next day or two. However, the magnitude of
weakening remains uncertain and will depend partly on how long Vance
remains over the cooler waters. The aforementioned differences in
the track guidance have also contributed to considerable spread
among the intensity solutions, with the possibility of more
substantial weakening than currently forecast. Vance could move
beyond the cooler waters after 48 h, allowing for some
restrengthening. Thereafter, increasing vertical wind shear,
decreasing mid-level moisture, and possible land interaction should
lead to another weakening trend late in the forecast period. The NHC
intensity forecast remains similar to the previous prediction and
lies near the upper end of the guidance envelope through much of the
forecast period.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0300Z 12.0N 102.6W   95 KT 110 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 12.8N 102.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 13.8N 103.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 14.8N 103.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 48H  26/0000Z 15.8N 103.8W   85 KT 100 MPH
 60H  26/1200Z 16.3N 104.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 72H  27/0000Z 16.8N 104.2W   95 KT 110 MPH
 96H  28/0000Z 17.6N 104.3W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  29/0000Z 18.4N 104.4W   70 KT  80 MPH