This year is starting a lot like last year in terms of unexpectedly severe weather, to the consternation of the insurance industry, which paid out more than $100 billion in 2011 on natural disasters. That could put more pressure on the shares of property/casualty insurers, which did relatively better than other insurers last year but have turned in a mixed performance so far in 2012, despite being a favorite of some analysts. To be fair, more than half of the 2011 losses came from earthquakes in Japan and New Zealand, and earthquakes are impossible to precisely predict.