Bill Gates famously said that we always overestimate the amount of change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next 10. Looking back 10 years, we find a world devoid of iPads, iPhones, mobile apps, big data technologies, the Internet of Things, viable driverless cars or even social media beyond a niche early adopter group. We also find a world without direct online sales of commercial insurance, without persistent low interest rates, without widespread use of catastrophe bonds and without VCs who could spell “insurance.”
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