Fitch Forecasts 2026 P/C Insurance Results to Mirror 2024

Fitch Ratings projects that U.S. property/casualty insurers will see 2026 underwriting results closely resemble those of 2024, driven by softening premium growth, normalized catastrophe activity, and tapering reserve development. Analysts cited a 3-4 percent growth expectation across lines and anticipate a return to a combined ratio between 96 and 97, following a particularly strong 2025 performance fueled by reduced hurricane losses and sustained profitability in personal auto lines.

For claims adjusters, these forecasts suggest a rebalancing year ahead. The softening in property lines and increasing competition in personal auto may shift carrier priorities toward retention and more selective underwriting—trends that adjusters must watch closely to understand potential changes in claim volumes and treatment. The market is also seeing improved safety features helping suppress loss frequency in auto, while rising severity and global economic factors like tariffs introduce new unpredictabilities.

Additionally, the report highlights how catastrophe impacts remain localized and variable. While 2025 avoided major hurricanes, California wildfires and severe convective storms added $90 billion to incurred losses—reminding claims professionals that regional risks remain intense, even in a favorable national underwriting environment. The strong reinsurance capacity and a "buyers’ market" outlook for 2026 provide insurers a buffer, though this could result in shifts in retention strategies or claims handling practices, especially in catastrophe-prone zones.

Fitch’s neutral outlook for the broader P/C sector, combined with growing carrier capital reserves and a wave of strategic M&A activity, indicates a stable yet evolving marketplace. Adjusters should stay alert to potential consolidation impacts, particularly if large players like Chubb and AIG move forward with merger talks. Integration of systems, shifting claims handling protocols, and changes in risk appetite may follow.