Hailstorms to Produce Larger Hailstones as Climate Warms, Posing Greater Damage Risks

A study by Northern Illinois University’s Weather, Climate and Society Research Group forecasts that hailstones will increase in size by 15 to 75 percent by the mid-to-late 21st century due to climate change. Using supercomputer simulations, the researchers explored how two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios would affect hail-producing storms.

The findings suggest that stronger thunderstorm updrafts, driven by more atmospheric instability and increased water vapor, will lead to the formation of larger hailstones, especially in the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Northeast. While fewer small hailstones are expected to reach the surface due to melting, larger hailstones will become more common, increasing the potential for severe damage.

The study also highlights that urban sprawl will amplify the impact of these larger hailstones, as growing populations and assets expand into storm-prone areas.