Heavy Rains Aim for Texas and Louisiana as Tropical System Brews in Gulf of Mexico

AccuWeather hurricane experts are monitoring the southwestern Gulf of Mexico for potential tropical development this week. Regardless of whether a tropical system forms, a plume of tropical moisture is expected to impact the central and western Gulf Coast, leading to poor beach weather and potential significant flooding in areas such as Texas and Louisiana.

A tropical rainstorm recently brought heavy rainfall to South Florida, and attention has now shifted to a broad, disorganized cluster of showers and thunderstorms over Central America, known as a "gyre." This meteorological feature can potentially develop into a tropical system.

AccuWeather has placed a "high" risk for tropical development in the Bay of Campeche from Monday to Wednesday. If a tropical system forms, it is likely to move quickly westward into Mexico around June 19. Limited time over water and proximity to land will restrict the system’s ability to intensify rapidly, though the possibility of forming a tropical depression or tropical storm remains.

Regardless of development, heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected to continue affecting Central America and southern Mexico, posing risks of flooding and mudslides. This tropical moisture will also extend into the western and central Gulf Coast states by Monday, raising concerns of downpours and flooding along the Interstate 10 corridor from New Orleans to Houston. Heavy rain is anticipated to spread westward across central and southern Texas throughout the week.

AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Adam Douty warns that heavy rain and flash flooding will be significant impacts, regardless of the system’s classification. Coastal areas may experience dangerous surf and rip currents, and if the system strengthens into a tropical storm, localized damaging winds could occur where the storm makes landfall.

Additionally, AccuWeather experts are watching the potential formation of a low-pressure area off a stalled front over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean later this week. This could bring another round of tropical downpours to Florida, already drenched from recent storms.

These developments signal a potentially active Atlantic hurricane season, with the season officially running from June 1 to November 30. The historical average date for the first named system in the Atlantic is June 20. Meanwhile, the Eastern Pacific hurricane season, which began on May 15, has yet to see its first named tropical system, typically expected around June 10.