NOAA Maintains Above-Normal Hurricane Season Outlook With Updated 2025 Forecast

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has reaffirmed its earlier prediction for an above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, though with slightly reduced confidence compared to its May outlook. The updated forecast, released Thursday, now gives a 50% chance of above-normal activity, 35% chance of a near-normal season, and 15% chance of a below-normal season. The agency projects 13 to 18 named storms, including 5 to 9 hurricanes and 2 to 5 major hurricanes reaching Category 3 or higher.

As of early August, the 2025 season has produced four named tropical storms—Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dexter—but no hurricanes. Climatologically, the first hurricane typically develops around August 11, leaving the peak months still ahead. NOAA officials emphasized that each storm poses unique hazards, urging residents in both coastal and inland areas to review and prepare emergency plans before severe weather strikes.

Colorado State University (CSU) also released its updated seasonal forecast, maintaining its expectation for slightly above-average storm activity but noting lower-than-usual confidence due to atmospheric wind pattern variability over the Caribbean earlier in the summer. CSU is calling for 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, and will issue biweekly updates through the peak season.

Both NOAA and CSU cite warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Atlantic and expected neutral El Niñoââ,,‘Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions as key factors supporting storm development. These environmental patterns remain favorable for hurricane formation and intensification in the coming months.