P/C Insurance Holds Steady in 2025 Despite Inflation, Tariffs, and Natural Disasters

The U.S. property/casualty insurance industry is expected to notch a second year of underwriting profitability in 2025, even amid significant macroeconomic and environmental headwinds. Data from Triple-I and Milliman points to stronger-than-expected growth, moderated replacement cost inflation, and a narrowing gap between personal and commercial lines performance.

For claims adjusters, this evolving landscape presents both opportunity and complexity. While personal auto continues to outperform with a projected profitable net combined ratio (NCR), homeowners insurance remains unprofitable overall despite a strong second quarter. Commercial lines are mixed, with general liability continuing to report underwriting losses, while workers’ compensation remains a standout performer—now tracking its twelfth consecutive year of combined ratios under 100%.

The report highlights how early 2025 catastrophe events like the Los Angeles fires impacted the underwriting gap between lines. Adjusters working catastrophe claims or those involved in commercial liability should pay close attention to forecasted loss ratios and premium trends, as they indicate where market pressures and performance issues may shift claims handling strategies.

This data-driven outlook also underscores the growing value of granular insights into line-specific performance. Members of Triple-I can access breakdowns of key sub-lines, including auto liability vs. physical damage and commercial property segments, aiding in more precise claims forecasting and risk mitigation planning.