AccuWeather's 2026 Eastern and Central Pacific hurricane season forecast is drawing attention across the insurance industry because it points to elevated tropical storm activity affecting Hawaii and parts of Southern California, two regions not traditionally viewed as major hurricane exposure zones. Forecasters project 17 to 22 named storms in the Eastern Pacific and 4 to 7 named storms in the Central Pacific, with Hawaii facing a heightened likelihood of direct storm impacts this season. Exceptionally warm Pacific waters combined with a developing El Niño pattern are expected to support stronger and longer-lasting storms capable of traveling farther north than usual.
For claims adjusters and carriers, the primary concern centers on flood exposure rather than catastrophic wind damage. Many homeowners in Hawaii and Southern California may not carry flood insurance because these markets are not commonly associated with tropical cyclone losses. That creates the potential for significant uninsured losses tied to flash flooding, debris flows, mudslides, and heavy rainfall events. Adjusters working these claims could face increased policyholder disputes over flood exclusions, water intrusion causation, and the separation between covered wind damage and excluded flood-related losses.
The forecast also raises operational concerns surrounding NFIP timing requirements. Homeowners purchasing flood insurance shortly before a storm threat may still fall within the program's standard 30-day waiting period, leaving properties uninsured during active portions of the Pacific season. Claims professionals and agents may encounter increased scrutiny from policyholders who were unaware of those waiting period limitations before losses occurred.
Southern California's growing tropical risk remains especially significant for catastrophe planning because the region's infrastructure, drainage systems, and property owners generally lack the preparation levels seen in traditional hurricane states. Hurricane Hilary in 2023 already demonstrated how Pacific tropical systems can produce widespread flooding, road closures, evacuations, and infrastructure damage across inland desert and valley communities. Future events could generate complex claims involving flood damage, debris flows, additional living expenses, and questions surrounding concurrent causation.
In Hawaii, insurers and adjusters may also see increased attention on percentage-based hurricane deductibles contained in many homeowners policies. Policyholders often underestimate the financial impact of those deductibles until a storm occurs. Hawaii's recent recovery from severe Kona Low flooding events earlier in 2026 may further complicate catastrophe response efforts by contributing to contractor shortages, repair delays, and rising rebuilding costs ahead of peak hurricane season.
