Wednesday, September 16th, 2026 — U.S. natural catastrophes account for an estimated $117 billion in insured average annual losses, about two-thirds of a $171 billion global benchmark, according to Verisk’s 2026 Global Modeled Catastrophe Losses Report. North America accounts for $124 billion of the global total.
The estimates represent long-term expected losses rather than a prediction for any individual year. Verisk’s global modeled average annual loss has risen from $59 billion in 2011 dollars to $171 billion in 2025 dollars. Exposure growth, broader model coverage and advances in catastrophe science are among the factors behind the increase.
Potential losses climb sharply beyond the annual average. Verisk estimates a 100-year industry loss could approach $477 billion, while a 250-year loss could exceed $600 billion. In the U.S., severe thunderstorms, wildfires, inland floods and winter storms contribute heavily to average losses, while hurricanes and earthquakes can drive extreme outcomes.
Global insured catastrophe losses exceeded $100 billion in 2025 despite the absence of a hurricane landfall in the continental U.S. The U.S. property and casualty industry’s combined ratio improved to 92.7 in the first half of 2026 from 96.5 a year earlier, while estimated net underwriting gains nearly tripled to $31.7 billion. Those results do not change Verisk’s long-term catastrophe loss estimates.
For claims organizations, catastrophe models draw partly on exposure and claims information, including building characteristics, reconstruction costs and claims experience. Those inputs can affect insurers’ assessments of risk, reinsurance needs, reserving assumptions and capital requirements. Accurate property and claims data therefore contributes to how insurers prepare for future catastrophe losses.
