Two tropical disturbances in the Atlantic have a 50% chance of development over the next seven days, signaling an increase in activity as the basin approaches the heart of hurricane season. Neither system poses an immediate threat to the United States, but one emerging from Africa bears watching as it moves west across the tropical Atlantic.
Invest 95L, southeast of Bermuda, is expected to move north and away from the United States. Cooler waters should eventually limit its development. A separate tropical wave leaving Africa could encounter conditions more favorable for organization later in the week, though forecast models currently favor a track that keeps the system away from the U.S.
For claims professionals, the more immediate concern is Hawaii. Tropical Storm Moke passed south of the Big Island before weakening to a depression, adding rainfall to areas already saturated by Hurricane Lala. Additional heavy rain could trigger flash flooding and landslides, particularly across eastern Maui and the Big Island.
The timing creates potential complications for catastrophe claims. Lala passed close to the Big Island on Aug. 15 and produced destructive flooding and landslides, with damage estimated in the hundreds of millions of dollars. New rainfall on already damaged properties can complicate inspections and require adjusters to distinguish damage associated with separate storm events.
Hawaii has now been affected by three named storms in 2026: Fausto, Lala and Moke. The unusual concentration of Pacific tropical activity could keep catastrophe teams focused on the islands, especially with forecasts indicating the potential for another named system to affect Hawaii within the next two weeks.
The Atlantic, meanwhile, has been exceptionally quiet. Through Aug. 23, its accumulated cyclone energy was 86% below the 1991-2020 average, and the basin had yet to produce its first hurricane. That quiet start does not eliminate late-season catastrophe exposure. Claims organizations should continue monitoring Atlantic development while Hawaii’s repeated rainfall events create more immediate property, flood and business interruption concerns.
