Colorado State University (CSU) has again lowered its forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, now predicting a well below-normal year as forecasters gain confidence that a strong El Niño will dominate atmospheric conditions through the height of hurricane season. The July 8 update trims the outlook to nine named storms, four hurricanes and one major hurricane, down from the June forecast of 11 named storms and five hurricanes.

The research team said strengthening El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific are expected to produce unusually high vertical wind shear across the Atlantic and Caribbean, creating an environment that suppresses tropical cyclone development. While sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic remain near average, CSU expects El Niño to be the dominant influence during the remainder of the season.

CSU now forecasts Atlantic Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 50, roughly 40 to 45 percent of the long-term average. The outlook also projects well below-average landfall risk, including a 17 percent chance of at least one major hurricane striking the continental United States, compared with the historical average of 43 percent. Major hurricane landfall probabilities for both the East Coast and Gulf Coast also remain well below historical norms.

For insurance carriers, catastrophe adjusters and claims organizations, the forecast may point to reduced overall catastrophe frequency, but it is not a reason to scale back preparedness. CSU emphasizes that seasonal forecasts cannot predict where storms will make landfall and that it only takes one hurricane striking a populated coastline to create a major claims event. Even during quiet Atlantic seasons, individual hurricanes have produced billions of dollars in insured losses.

The July outlook also marks the first time CSU has incorporated output from the Ai2 Climate Emulator, an artificial intelligence-based atmospheric model, into its seasonal forecasting process. Researchers said the AI guidance supports traditional statistical and dynamical models by reinforcing expectations for elevated Atlantic wind shear during the peak months of the season.

CSU plans to issue its final seasonal hurricane forecast update on Aug. 5.