Flood Forecasting Defended by NWS as Critics Question Impact of Staffing Cuts

The National Weather Service (NWS) is under renewed scrutiny following catastrophic flooding in Texas that left at least 81 people dead and many more missing. The flooding, which hit the Texas Hill Country—often called ‘flash flood alley’—came with limited warning during the early hours of July 4, raising concerns about whether agency staffing cuts under the Trump administration played a role in the tragedy.

While some Texas officials questioned the forecasts, independent meteorologists and a former NWS leader said the flood warnings were timely and as accurate as possible, considering the challenges of predicting extreme rainfall. They pointed instead to communication breakdowns in the ‘last mile’ of alert delivery, including whether residents received and heeded emergency messages during overnight hours when most were asleep.

Despite issuing multiple flood alerts, NWS offices in Austin/San Antonio and San Angelo are operating with reduced staff and several unfilled leadership roles. Although the staffing levels didn’t prevent the issuance of warnings, experts say ongoing gaps in senior roles could impact future preparedness and response, especially as climate events become more severe and harder to forecast.

The controversy has reignited debates over the implications of budget cuts to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and its forecasting capabilities. Experts warn that continued underfunding could jeopardize critical research, particularly in improving precipitation forecasting models—an area central to flash flood prediction.