GLP-1 Cost Trends: New Data Shows Reduced Medical Spend Growth and Adherence-Driven Value

A second-phase workforce-focused analysis from Aon expands the discussion around GLP-1 medications beyond drug spend and into longer-term medical cost behavior and hospitalization trends. Using de-identified commercial medical and pharmacy claims from roughly 50 million covered lives, the study evaluates 192,000 GLP-1 users matched to non-users with similar demographic and clinical profiles. The goal is to isolate how sustained GLP-1 therapy influences medical cost growth, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), and condition-level claims incidence.

For claims adjusters, the findings reinforce a familiar theme. While pharmacy costs remain higher for GLP-1 users, medical cost growth begins to decelerate after the first year of therapy. In the diabetes cohort, GLP-1 users experienced a six-percentage-point improvement in medical spend growth between months 12 and 30 compared to matched non-users. Weight loss users showed a similar pattern, with a three-point improvement between months 12 and 18. These trends matter when evaluating severity drivers, long-term reserves, and emerging loss patterns tied to cardiometabolic risk.

Adherence emerged as the dominant driver of value. Users maintaining at least 80 percent adherence achieved materially better outcomes, including greater reductions in medical cost growth and statistically significant decreases in hospitalizations related to MACE. From a claims perspective, this highlights why utilization management, persistence, and discontinuation rates can materially affect downstream medical exposure.

The study also points to notable gender-based differences. Women represented nearly two-thirds of GLP-1 users and showed larger reductions in cardiovascular hospitalizations than men. Female GLP-1 users also demonstrated lower incidence rates for conditions such as breast cancer, ovarian cancer, osteoporosis, and rheumatoid arthritis when compared to matched female non-users. At the same time, higher gallbladder surgery hospitalization rates among women underscore the importance of monitoring adverse event trends that may influence surgical and inpatient claims.

Overall, the analysis suggests GLP-1 therapy may alter the medical claims trajectory over time, particularly when adherence is sustained. For claims professionals, this data provides additional context for evaluating long-term medical exposure, trend assumptions, and the evolving relationship between pharmacy spend and medical severity.