Hurricane Forecasting Breakthroughs at Risk as NOAA Faces Budget Cuts

In 2024, the National Hurricane Center delivered its most accurate tropical cyclone forecasts on record, with projections five days out nearly as reliable as one-day forecasts from just two decades ago. These forecasting breakthroughs, made possible through decades of federally funded research, have dramatically improved public preparedness and reduced unnecessary evacuations. However, those gains are now in jeopardy due to proposed cuts to NOAA’s budget and staffing levels.

The Trump administration’s 2025 budget plan includes suspensions of critical weather balloon launches and the elimination of funding for key research partnerships and satellite technology. These tools are essential for tracking steering winds, measuring storm intensity, and forecasting rapid intensification. Weather balloons, Hurricane Hunter flights, and advanced satellite systems each provide unique data not easily replicated by commercial or international sources.

Forecasters rely on this infrastructure to protect lives and property as hurricane seasons become more active and coastal development increases exposure to storm risks. The recent layoffs of NOAA Hurricane Hunter flight directors and the defunding of Cooperative Institutes underscore growing operational limitations. Experts warn that even small data gaps—like a dozen missing balloon launches—can cascade into major forecasting errors, especially under the chaotic conditions of tropical cyclones.

The U.S. is seeing more destructive hurricanes, and 2025 is expected to bring another active season. As the atmosphere continues to change and coastal vulnerability rises, accurate storm forecasting will be more vital than ever. Undermining NOAA’s capabilities now could put countless lives and billions in property at greater risk.