Hurricane Season Starts Quiet in 2025 but Forecasters Warn of a Volatile Second Half

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season is off to its slowest start since 2009, with only one named storm, Chantal, briefly impacting the continental U.S. Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is well below average, reflecting minimal tropical activity through late July. While this initial lull is welcome news for storm-weary coastal communities, meteorologists caution that it’s too early to relax.

Forecast models from WeatherTiger project a possible spike in activity beginning mid-September. There is currently a 55% chance of an above-average season, with 16–20 named storms and 3–4 major hurricanes still possible. Recent trends, including warming in the Tropical Atlantic and signs of a weak La Niña developing, support the potential for a more active second half of the season.

The variability between forecasting models is unusually high this year. Some models highlight persistent trade winds and stable air that suppress storm formation, while others emphasize warming ocean temperatures that could boost cyclone development. This internal model disagreement makes predictions particularly uncertain—but history suggests late-season surges, as seen in 2020, 2022, and 2024, are increasingly common.

Insurance professionals and claims adjusters should closely monitor updates as peak hurricane months approach. With the risk of U.S. hurricane landfalls increasing sharply in late September and October, preparation remains critical despite the early calm.