Neutral Pacific Waters Signal Potential Spike in Atlantic Hurricanes

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center has announced that La Niña has officially ended, marking a return to neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This shift in sea surface temperatures, while not directly influential on Northern Hemisphere summer weather, could pave the way for a heightened Atlantic hurricane season.

When the Pacific Ocean is in a neutral state — meaning neither La Niña nor El Niño is active — there are fewer atmospheric disruptions over the Atlantic. This can create a more favorable environment for hurricane formation and intensification, particularly in the Caribbean and Gulf Coast regions. The lack of El Niño, which typically disrupts storms with upper-level winds, removes a major inhibitor of tropical cyclone development.

According to forecasts, there is a 43% chance that the Pacific will remain neutral through early 2026, and a 38% chance that La Niña could return. The likelihood of El Niño re-emerging remains below 20%, further reinforcing the possibility of a busy hurricane season. However, forecasters caution that seasonal predictions issued during March through May carry the highest uncertainty.

For insurance claims professionals, especially those managing catastrophe response and risk assessments along the U.S. Gulf Coast, this neutral pattern is a critical signal to prepare for increased storm activity in the coming months.