NOAA Launches First Hourly Wildfire Risk Model to Improve Forecasting and Response

NOAA scientists have developed a groundbreaking wildfire prediction tool—the Hourly Wildfire Potential Index (HWP)—that provides wildfire hazard updates every hour across the United States. Built using NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) weather model and the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS), HWP marks the first real-time model of its kind capable of predicting rapid changes in wildfire behavior based on atmospheric and ground conditions.

The HWP tool incorporates data on wind speed, humidity, soil moisture, and radiant heat from satellites to estimate how wildfires could spread, how intense they might become, and how much smoke they may generate. This model was trained on three years of satellite fire data and aims to give emergency managers, forecasters, and land agencies a sharper edge when tracking fast-changing fire scenarios.

Unlike traditional fire indices, which often rely on slower or coarser data, HWP leverages the HRRR model’s high spatial resolution and hourly refresh rate. This allows it to track fire potential from dawn to dusk, including during nighttime weather shifts or sudden cold fronts. The model also helps estimate plume height—a key factor in determining how far wildfire smoke may travel and where it might impact air quality.

HWP is already being integrated into experimental versions of RRFS and is available for real-time use across the contiguous U.S. and Alaska. In addition to supporting wildfire response, the index may be used to inform prescribed burns, study ozone formation in smoke, and refine future smoke dispersion forecasts.